Impacts on Asia of a Portuguese South Africa

[Phalamus]

The possibility of a Portuguese South Africa from the early 1500s seems to be a well-liked Alternate History idea. While the area around the Cape of Good Hope seemed like an inferior location for a Portuguese waystation to India when compared with the Island of Mozambique, in the long run it had the incomparable advantage of being able to sustain a large European population due to its Mediterranean climate.

It is generally agreed upon that population would see exponential growth, so that by 1600 or so the colony would provide the Portuguese Empire in Asia with an invaluable source of man power.

I'm interested in what happens from that time onwards (assuming minimal butterflies before, so no additional Portuwanking).

How does the conflict with the Dutch go?

 

[TheKutKu]

Portuguese Southern Africa gives them access to, before even gold or silver, a lot more copper, either directly or through interior trade, this would definitely help the trade balance of portuguese merchants in Asia, make them less dependent on european copper sources and copper trade intermediary (mostly coming from northern europe), Minting industry would likely appear, if allowed, in south africa and mozambique, this could even slightly mitigate the ongoing silverisation of the Ming economy.

 

[EMT]

I think it's a safe assumption that instead of OTL's Portugal-Brazil dynamic it'll be a tripartite balancing act with South Africa added on. I think the most interesting question is going to be, does South Africa become the demographic heavyweight in such a scenario? Assuming Brazilian settling patterns go as OTL w/ continued focus on the less hospitable northern part.

It might ultimately come down to whose mineral resources are discovered first, Brazil or South Africa. The estimates for Brazil say 100,000 people by 1600. It's not hard to imagine South Africa ahead of that or at least in the same ballpark.

 

[TheKutKu]

I think it's a safe assumption that instead of OTL's Portugal-Brazil dynamic it'll be a tripartite balancing act with South Africa added on. I think the most interesting question is going to be, does South Africa become the demographic heavyweight in such a scenario? Assuming Brazilian settling patterns go as OTL w/ continued focus on the less hospitable northern part.

It might ultimately come down to whose mineral resources are discovered first, Brazil or South Africa. The estimates for Brazil say 100,000 people by 1600. It's not hard to imagine South Africa ahead of that or at least in the same ballpark.

South Africa will likely be subordinate to goa/Portuguese Indies, as far as the prestige is considered, it'll only increase it, so if we take an only binary point of view between the west (brazil) and the east (indies), I think the former will likely always be secondary to the later in such timeline.

It'd be interesting to have a TL where the fate of both are "reversed", portugal loses the entirety of the east during an "age of revolution", but keeps a less developped brazil...

 

[holycookie]

I'm interested in what happens from that time onwards (assuming minimal butterflies before, so no additional Portuwanking).

First, we have to understand why this colonization happened. They lost Brazil to the French, which made them realize how vulnerable their territories were. Generating a need to strengthen their position in Asia. Maybe with an agreement with the French to transport the Portuguese colonists to South Africa? Or is there another reason, the reason is the main thing that we have to establish.

How does the conflict with the Dutch go?

South Africa became the main shield against the Dutch expansion, this came from the Dutch's need to dominate southern Africa (or the Cape to be specific) to conduct more complex campaigns in Asia, thus breaking the Portuguese monopoly.

 

[Phalamus]

First, we have to understand why this colonization happened. They lost Brazil to the French, which made them realize how vulnerable their territories were. Generating a need to strengthen their position in Asia. Maybe with an agreement with the French to transport the Portuguese colonists to South Africa? Or is there another reason, the reason is the main thing that we have to establish.

The obvious reason to colonize it is as a way station to India in the early 1500s. Just having worse initially luck establishing themselves in the coast of Mozambique could do the trick. Or, if we are willing to endow historical figure with a little bit more prescience than usual, they could just see the value in setting up a base somewhere that is empty...

South Africa became the main shield against the Dutch expansion, this came from the Dutch's need to dominate southern Africa (or the Cape to be specific) to conduct more complex campaigns in Asia, thus breaking the Portuguese monopoly.

So, if Portugal controls South Africa by 1600, where do the Dutch for a base?

 

[eliamartin65]

So, if Portugal controls South Africa by 1600, where do the Dutch for a base?

Pernambuco works IMO.

 

[Phalamus]

It might ultimately come down to whose mineral resources are discovered first, Brazil or South Africa. The estimates for Brazil say 100,000 people by 1600. It's not hard to imagine South Africa ahead of that or at least in the same ballpark.

Yes, a Portuguese South Africa by 1600 would most definitely have a larger population than Brazil. First settlement date would be a few decades earlier, it would be a more attractive destination for colonists due to its milder climate and economic integration with the East Indies, and death rates would be much lower leading to faster population growth.

Larger population earlier also means more chance of finding gold earlier...

 

[holycookie]

The obvious reason to colonize it is as a way station to India in the early 1500s.

This is more than obvious, I'm talking about the reason for making a base in South Africa. Because they didn't do it in Otl due to the lack of economic interest.

Just having worse initially luck establishing themselves in the coast of Mozambique could do the trick.

No, it won't be. They will try elsewhere on the east coast of Africa. Not to mention that Mozambique was one of the easiest places to secure. The Portuguese have had ports in the region since 1500.

So, if Portugal controls South Africa by 1600, where do the Dutch for a base?

They don't have it, so they will have to break Portuguese control in South Africa. Maybe a conquest of Angola or port Madagascar, but none are as calm as the Cape region.

Pernambuco works IMO.

The Dutch conquest of Portuguese Brazil is a pipedream. The fact that they were kicked out by the locals more than confirms this. If the Dutch were Catholic and hadn't fired all the black people and mixed people from the local government it would be possible. Difficult but possible.

Yes, a Portuguese South Africa by 1600 would most definitely have a larger population than Brazil.

Portugal does not have the manpower to secure Brazil and South Africa, they are not Spain. That's why I talked about the possibility of France having the region (something they tried a lot in the 15th century). But selling to England is also a possibility, especially if England remains Catholic or Portugal is not unified with Spain (unlikely).

@Aluma @Taunay @Kurd Gossemer @Imperador Pedro III What do you guys think?

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

What about Great Zimbabwe? The Portuguese could be motivated to settle the country of South Africa to start commerce and trading with Great Zimbabwe.

 

[holycookie]

What about Great Zimbabwe? The Portuguese could be motivated to settle the country of South Africa to start commerce and trading with Great Zimbabwe.

Maybe, but I think this will make Mozambique larger.

 

[Taunay]

Portugal does not have the manpower to secure Brazil and South Africa, they are not Spain. That's why I talked about the possibility of France having the region (something they tried a lot in the 15th century). But selling to England is also a possibility, especially if England remains Catholic or Portugal is not unified with Spain (unlikely).

I disagree in parts.
1) I still see Brazil as a good stopping point for Portuguese sailors, so at least some regions of Brazil will be kept
2) Manpower isn't always everything. Focus and investment is more important in colonial enterprises. And also, Portuguese colonial societies in Southern Africa would experience a major population boom due to the favorable weather conditions, which means that Portugal would redirect settlers into Brazil
3) Brazilian expansion was mostly done by Brazil-born mamelucos (Portuguese-Native mixed people). If Portugal only sends a few thousand settlers, I don't think it's impossible for the Bandeirantes to still exist and expand Brazil

 

[TheKutKu]

Yeah, the whole "point" of portuguese southern africa is that it's "just another fort" alongside the way to the indies, but one founded very early in the first couple decade of the 16th century. settled by relatively modest amount of settlers, degredados and clergymen, and that, with virtually no diverted ressources from any other point IRL, grows into a non-negligible agricultural, plantation and manpower ressource for the indian ocean empire by the late 16th century thanks to demographic growth and slave trade, which is the moment where it starts to have an influence, and where its presence would affect the portuguese struggle to keep its african and asian empire starting at the end of the century.
The "beginnings" of Brazil are going to be mostly identical to IRL.

 

[holycookie]

I disagree in parts.
1) I still see Brazil as a good stopping point for Portuguese sailors, so at least some regions of Brazil will be kept

I guess the northeast would be the best location to be kept, especially cities like Salvador.

2) which means that Portugal would redirect settlers into Brazil

I strongly disagree with this, we see how weak immigration to Brazil was before the discovery of gold. The fact that the colony had the smallest population among the largest colonies before the discovery of gold confirms this. The immigration did not increase significantly over the years, I would say that a depopulation of Brazil with people going to Africa looking for gold is more likely than people coming to Brazil. Unless Portugal chains Portuguese en masse to Brazil, this will not happen.

3) Brazilian expansion was mostly done by Brazil-born mamelucos (Portuguese-Native mixed people).

They depopulated the regions and created forts but without anyone in the future to populate these regions. The situation becomes very vulnerable.

If Portugal only sends a few thousand settlers,

The problem is that no one wanted to go to Brazil. Thousands of Portuguese people over how long? The annual average was 500 settlers until 1700. That's 50 thousand per century, which led to a population of 300 thousand among settlers, slaves, Indians, and Pardos. Now imagine if gold is discovered in South Africa, migration to this colony will be negative.

In South America, the future will be with Argentina, which will be able to conquer several important territories to become a South American superpower.

 

[holycookie]

The "beginnings" of Brazil are going to be mostly identical to IRL.

Yes, if there are no changes compared to OTL.

 

[Taunay]

strongly disagree with this, we see how weak immigration to Brazil was before the discovery of gold. The fact that the colony had the smallest population among the largest colonies before the discovery of gold confirms this. The immigration did not increase significantly over the years, I would say that a depopulation of Brazil with people going to Africa looking for gold is more likely than people coming to Brazil. Unless Portugal chains Portuguese en masse to Brazil, this will not happen.

I think it's still very possible for Portugal to still discover gold in Minas Gerais, they were searching for it since the 1520s at least.
So we'll have two colonies competing for migrants. I also don't think it's impossible for Portugal to focus on both of these colonies. If the hundred thousand Portuguese men who died in the East Indies remained in South Africa instead, and had children of their own, you'd have millions of possible settlers of both South Africa and Brazil within a few centuries. Also South African gold will end, and Portugal will then redirect its focus to South America

 

[holycookie]

I think it's still very possible for Portugal to still discover gold in Minas Gerais, they were searching for it since the 1520s at least

Yes, it is possible. It's more of a race against time for both colonies. Whoever discovers it first will have a population boom (before Portugal but a cap in its migration policies). But in the end, this won't change much of Portugal's future economic situation. Their dependence/customs on importing more complex products together with their outsourcing tendency will not generate a great future.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

SNIP

I don't think it's impossible for Portugal to have a presence in South Africa, just unlikely given that even the Dutch who had a very vested interest in the Far East couldn't attract enough people and had to rely on natural growth, if they could set up a few small towns with settlers and let it grow there(with a few Azorian immigrants given the islands were always looking to export people), if the Portuguese can hold it from the Dutch, you would see it eventually expanding and try to connect with their Angolan and Mozambique possessions because otherwise, you just end up with a British South Africa situation but worst given the differing religion.

France isn't impossible to have South Africa but we would need to see it being more interested in overseas exploration, avoiding the wars of religion would do wonders for the country and further desire for overseas adventures

 

[Viriato]

The Dutch were initially interested in taking Mozambique Island, so much so that they laid siege to the island in 1607, 1608, and again in 1663. From the point of view of the Portuguese and the Dutch, Mozambique was a superior location than the Cape because of the ability to utilize preexisting Swahili coastal trading networks. Even when Vasco da Gama first arrived, Swahili traders were surprised to learn that the had come from the south as they considered the lands south of the Zambezi River to offer nothing worth trading in. If Mozambique Island were to fall to the Dutch, it is likely that Mombasa and Malindi would fall too, and the VOC would focus on controlling the trade between the Swahili Coast and India, exchanging ivory for textiles.

In a scenario where Mozambique Island is lost to the Dutch, the Portuguese probably begin using the Cape for provisions, and are probably forced to avoid the Mozambique Channel altogether, sailing instead around southern Madagascar and probably establishing a permanent presence in the Mascarenes as well. However, the Portuguese presence in India itself might also be threatened and Goa could fall after Mozambique. To anyone in the 17th century, in such a scenario it would appear that the Portuguese were left with the worthless crumbs (South Africa and the Mascarene Islands), rather than the lucarative trading posts.

 

[TheKutKu]

The Dutch were initially interested in taking Mozambique Island, so much so that they laid siege to the island in 1607, 1608, and again in 1663. From the point of view of the Portuguese and the Dutch, Mozambique was a superior location than the Cape because of the ability to utilize preexisting Swahili coastal trading networks. Even when Vasco da Gama first arrived, Swahili traders were surprised to learn that the had come from the south as they considered the lands south of the Zambezi River to offer nothing worth trading in. If Mozambique Island were to fall to the Dutch, it is likely that Mombasa and Malindi would fall too, and the VOC would focus on controlling the trade between the Swahili Coast and India, exchanging ivory for textiles.

In a scenario where Mozambique Island is lost to the Dutch, the Portuguese probably begin using the Cape for provisions, and are probably forced to avoid the Mozambique Channel altogether, sailing instead around southern Madagascar and probably establishing a permanent presence in the Mascarenes as well. However, the Portuguese presence in India itself might also be threatened and Goa could fall after Mozambique. To anyone in the 17th century, in such a scenario it would appear that the Portuguese were left with the worthless crumbs (South Africa and the Mascarene Islands), rather than the lucarative trading posts.

In the case of about a 1607-8 Dutch capture of Mozambique, the Portuguese still have significant inland presence in mozambique, With potentially sofala as a secondary access, this may be enough to be able to mount a successful counter attack campaign if aided with naval assets, the VOC’s relation with the Arabs-Swahili would probably be the decisive factor.

A 1663 taking would probably not result in the the immediate loss of Goa to the Dutch, since the war was already at its end, but it would likely make the "stabilisation" of the Portuguese eastern empire of the 1660s-1680s much harder, and I can easily imagine other powers taking the remnants of the Portuguese Indian Ocean empire , the British as part of their expansions following the Bombay cession dowry, the French as part of the upcoming wars.