From my limited understanding, the OTL fall of South Vietnam was due to lack of American supplies and airpower. While they never quite ran out of ammunition completely, they certainly couldn't fight the highly resource intensive war they were used to.
I think one obvious POD would be no...
First of all, it's mind boggingly stupid for the Allies to allow Italy to leave the war, then freely trade with Germany.
It's one thing to have continued bloody ground offensives. But I wonder if anyone would have opposed a continued air campaign. From bases in France the distance is so much...
Unless I misread your TL, the Soviets are still fighting. What do you mean by no eastern front?
In any case, trying to cram more troops down the same crowded roads won't do a lick to stop the Allies from smashing up supply columns, and would in fact create a target rich environment.
Assuming a...
They can't keep them fed forever, but long enough for a breakout/breakin to succeed. Meanwhile once the skies clear up, air interdiction would badly cut German supplies needed to attack the pocket. While breaking out may be difficult, in the absence of an all out attack and with the pocket so...
Hmm, the Germans surrounded 200,000 soldiers on Christmas Eve and secured their surrender in one week? Sorry, even rolling all the sixes you like it ain't happening.
Even the massively outnumbered Stalingrad pocket far behind enemy lines and isolated from support held out for months. The...
They took all they could chew already, I think. The Austrians had a few times considered revenge for 1866. Dismembering France any more than it already has might alarm the British a bit, and taking the Baltics, for a war against Russia? No way. I could see them do it if they fought a bunch of...
Easiest POD would be that Bazaine slips and falls to his death, or his ship sinks on the way back from Mexico, etc. An absolutely atrocious and indecisive commander.
Longer past that, a better artillery would have been welcome. Perhaps Reffye, instead of working on the mitrailleuse, should have...
I'm not sure that even with excellent leadership that the Kohima-Imphal offensive would have gone very much farther. As I understand it, the Japanese achieved surprise and rather good results in their initial maneuver OTL, but after that both the Kohima battle and the Imphal siege seem like...
I'm not sure what could really be done in 1941. Perhaps if the Soviets became far more cautious they could avoid some of the later big encirclements, e.g. the Kiev pocket and Bryansk pockets. They really should have held back on any serious attacks when they were not ready, but such a massive...
Napoleon's invasion of Spain, then Russia. Then even after both ended in disasters, turning down a generous offer of peace while fighting a coalition of literally every other major power in Europe. A military genius but a strategic idiot, his decision to invade Spain/Russia might as well have...
What is the POD exactly? Considering lack of elaboration of what happened to make things this way, this belongs in ASB. Such huge demographic changes would greatly change the entire strategy, structure and nature of the armed forces that it's a stretch we'd see the exact same situation as in...
Fully agree, but I'm just playing along with the OP's premise that you have to fight the US at some point.
Not too familiar with the political situation in the Philippines, but weren't they going to get independence anyway? Were there groups unhappy with the form of government to be adopted? I...
This is a very good point. A pissed off America attacked without provocation vs a war of choice is a big difference. If the Japanese constantly proclaim their desire for a white peace in a war that the Americans started, every loss will be felt more keenly and the isolationists will wonder out...
Just limiting myself to strategy, but I would honestly try to peace out of China as quickly as possible. Accept the first Trautmann proposal which Chiang was already willing to negotiate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trautmann_mediation#First_proposal). Without this huge bleeding sore the U.S...
OTL they were deployed forward after their initial misuse of keeping them at artillery ranges. But less secrecy would certainly have served them well, if gunners were better trained in their use. They tended not to sweep their fire so one man would take a lot of bullets but leave the surrounding...