Lands of Red and Gold

[Geekhis Khan]

If the Yadji do develop some form of suicide bomber squads, it won't be the highly-trained berserkers. There are cheaper alternatives. Any reasonably fit schmuck off the farm can be loaded up with explosives and a collection of ball bearings and "run that way".

Training's a bitch though. "Okay, guys, watch closely because I'm only going to demonstrate this once".

 

[DG Valdron]

Following up, I don't see the metallurgical issues as being surmountable in any meaningful way by the Yadji.

If you look at the history of cannon and firearms, you find a long history of fairly rubbishy performance, with improvement accreting only gradually, through an incremental collection of improvements.

From "A History of Explosives" published by G.A. Brown, 1998, in respect of the cannon in use during the battle of the Spanish Armada:

"...not only were no two cannons ever quite alike, but the connon balls supplied with any given piece were unlikely to be all the same size, so that windage, the difference between the diameter of the shot and that of the bore, usually considerable was also variable. As a result, it was only in the text books that a piece of given bore and length loaded in a given fashion would hurl a ball of a given size a given distance. In fact, even at most experienced gunner might hesitate to predict when he next fired it, whether his gun would send its shot directly to the target, drop it with a discouraged burp a few hundre feet ahead, or blow up in the breach killing him and his crew."

This is the problem that the Yadji face. Even assuming that they could bootstrap or shortcut their metallurgy to get themselves a working cannon, its hard to see them making a good one.

And its not a matter of being able to copy the improvements. 18th century dutch or british cannon, were the end product of improvements, not just in cannon design, but throughout the production process, ranging from better refinement and smelting of purer ores, higher and more stable forge temperatures, increasing precision in technique at every step of the process.

Assuming they do build a rubbishy crap unreliable cannon, what good does it do them. There's an advantage perhaps over cultures without cannon, in special circumstances. But there's no way for them to compete with European cannon literally two or three hundred years more advanced with all the incremental improvements that made them an effective tool.

We were able to make do with rubbishy unreliable cannon because a) that was all anyone had, so there was technological parity at worse; and b) there were specific applications that even a crap cannon was pretty good at (castle walls).

The only way the Yadji are going to be able to develop their own cannon in a manner competitive with the Europeans, is if they literally go out and buy a European metallurgical complex. ie - import a fair number of european engineers, foundry workers, etc., and throw tons of money at them while they overhaul a Yadji metallurgical complex almost from scratch while training the locals. It's not ASB, but it would definitely be uphill, requiring some kind of effective commercial relationship, a willing european partner and a conceptual grasp of the problem, none of which exist at this point.

Of course, in the next fifty or hundred years, some enterprising Europeans might decide or perhaps could be persuaded that the Yadji infrastructure is useful to build on to give them an advantage in local markets. ie, that its cheaper in the long run to train up a Yadji metal/manufacturing complex than it is to shlep stuff all the way from Europe. But that seems iffy.

In contrast, everything I've read about gunpowder suggests its a much more portable technology available to organized societies. Very hard for disorganized societies. But basically, all you need is the social sophistication to identify or refine the different constituents (which are to be found at different locations or produced through different refining processes) and then bring them together mixing according to relatively crude measuring ratios.

Very hard for disorganized societies which have difficulty transporting significant quantities of material from one point to the other reliably, or investing in production processes, or even establishing consistent measuring systems in some cases.

But well within the Yadji level of technology. The question for the Yadji is are they sufficiently flexible to incorporate and make use of gunpowder technology independently of the way in which it has been presented to them. If all they can conceive is to use it for cannon or gun, then forget it, that part of the package is definitely out of their reach. If, on the other hand, they can find applications or uses for it which have not been shown to them, but are within the capacity of their technological package.... then they've got something. But the curve for that level of inventiveness is highly variable, depending on the flexibilitiy of the culture and the brilliance of individuals drawn to the problem.

Grenades? Much more viable. I can't put my hands on the reference work right now (much of my life is in boxes). But I seem to recall that ceramic or clay pot grenades were actually in use in the Byzantine empire well before gunpowder made its way over. Basically, the kinetic energy of the throw and impact was sufficient to make for a nasty bang, particularly if you had the interior filled with an incendiary, like oil, pitch or coals. Gunpowder only increased that.

The technical challenges of crafting a shell and delay or impact fuse are likely well within effective range of Yadji society. You can even conceive effective delivery enhancement - atlatl, slings, small siege engines, bow and arrow.

As a final thought - actually having a few cannon to test might be of great use to the Yadji in one respect - it may help to improve their ability to cope with or design tactics to help neutralize cannon or firearms. These aren't out of the question, conceptually. Earthwork fortifications and barriers rather than walls, foxholes and trenches, tactics or construction to reduce line of sight, forcing battles to take place under circumstances where the Yadji can preserve their forces and get their enemy within striking distance.

 

[ChucK Y]

As a final thought - actually having a few cannon to test might be of great use to the Yadji in one respect - it may help to improve their ability to cope with or design tactics to help neutralize cannon or firearms. These aren't out of the question, conceptually. Earthwork fortifications and barriers rather than walls, foxholes and trenches, tactics or construction to reduce line of sight, forcing battles to take place under circumstances where the Yadji can preserve their forces and get their enemy within striking distance.

I am reminded of the 'pa' of the New Zealand Land Wars. Originally, the Maori built these near their villages as storehouses, made defensible to protect their harvest from being stolen. The British considered them to be forts, and put a major emphasis on capturing them, even at considerable cost; while the Maori put no strategic value on them. Over time the Maori learned to put them up as defensive works, quickly put up and readily abandoned. The British would attack them and consider it a victory to capture one. On the other hand, the Maori considered it a victory that they had bled the Britsh attackers, en route and at the attack, and had escaped successfully.

 

[mojojojo]

I am reminded of the 'pa' of the New Zealand Land Wars. Originally, the Maori built these near their villages as storehouses, made defensible to protect their harvest from being stolen. The British considered them to be forts, and put a major emphasis on capturing them, even at considerable cost; while the Maori put no strategic value on them. Over time the Maori learned to put them up as defensive works, quickly put up and readily abandoned. The British would attack them and consider it a victory to capture one. On the other hand, the Maori considered it a victory that they had bled the Britsh attackers, en route and at the attack, and had escaped successfully.

That reminds me, will we get to see what the Maori have been up to any time soon in this TL?

 

[Mark-ITSOT]

Following up, I don't see the metallurgical issues as being surmountable in any meaningful way by the Yadji.

If you look at the history of cannon and firearms, you find a long history of fairly rubbishy performance, with improvement accreting only gradually, through an incremental collection of improvements.

From "A History of Explosives" published by G.A. Brown, 1998, in respect of the cannon in use during the battle of the Spanish Armada:



This is the problem that the Yadji face. Even assuming that they could bootstrap or shortcut their metallurgy to get themselves a working cannon, its hard to see them making a good one.

And its not a matter of being able to copy the improvements. 18th century dutch or british cannon, were the end product of improvements, not just in cannon design, but throughout the production process, ranging from better refinement and smelting of purer ores, higher and more stable forge temperatures, increasing precision in technique at every step of the process.

Assuming they do build a rubbishy crap unreliable cannon, what good does it do them. There's an advantage perhaps over cultures without cannon, in special circumstances. But there's no way for them to compete with European cannon literally two or three hundred years more advanced with all the incremental improvements that made them an effective tool.

We were able to make do with rubbishy unreliable cannon because a) that was all anyone had, so there was technological parity at worse; and b) there were specific applications that even a crap cannon was pretty good at (castle walls).

The only way the Yadji are going to be able to develop their own cannon in a manner competitive with the Europeans, is if they literally go out and buy a European metallurgical complex. ie - import a fair number of european engineers, foundry workers, etc., and throw tons of money at them while they overhaul a Yadji metallurgical complex almost from scratch while training the locals. It's not ASB, but it would definitely be uphill, requiring some kind of effective commercial relationship, a willing european partner and a conceptual grasp of the problem, none of which exist at this point.

Of course, in the next fifty or hundred years, some enterprising Europeans might decide or perhaps could be persuaded that the Yadji infrastructure is useful to build on to give them an advantage in local markets. ie, that its cheaper in the long run to train up a Yadji metal/manufacturing complex than it is to shlep stuff all the way from Europe. But that seems iffy.

In contrast, everything I've read about gunpowder suggests its a much more portable technology available to organized societies. Very hard for disorganized societies. But basically, all you need is the social sophistication to identify or refine the different constituents (which are to be found at different locations or produced through different refining processes) and then bring them together mixing according to relatively crude measuring ratios.

Very hard for disorganized societies which have difficulty transporting significant quantities of material from one point to the other reliably, or investing in production processes, or even establishing consistent measuring systems in some cases.

But well within the Yadji level of technology. The question for the Yadji is are they sufficiently flexible to incorporate and make use of gunpowder technology independently of the way in which it has been presented to them. If all they can conceive is to use it for cannon or gun, then forget it, that part of the package is definitely out of their reach. If, on the other hand, they can find applications or uses for it which have not been shown to them, but are within the capacity of their technological package.... then they've got something. But the curve for that level of inventiveness is highly variable, depending on the flexibilitiy of the culture and the brilliance of individuals drawn to the problem.

Grenades? Much more viable. I can't put my hands on the reference work right now (much of my life is in boxes). But I seem to recall that ceramic or clay pot grenades were actually in use in the Byzantine empire well before gunpowder made its way over. Basically, the kinetic energy of the throw and impact was sufficient to make for a nasty bang, particularly if you had the interior filled with an incendiary, like oil, pitch or coals. Gunpowder only increased that.

The technical challenges of crafting a shell and delay or impact fuse are likely well within effective range of Yadji society. You can even conceive effective delivery enhancement - atlatl, slings, small siege engines, bow and arrow.

As a final thought - actually having a few cannon to test might be of great use to the Yadji in one respect - it may help to improve their ability to cope with or design tactics to help neutralize cannon or firearms. These aren't out of the question, conceptually. Earthwork fortifications and barriers rather than walls, foxholes and trenches, tactics or construction to reduce line of sight, forcing battles to take place under circumstances where the Yadji can preserve their forces and get their enemy within striking distance.

I'm going to have to pull you up there. Recent archaeological evidence shows the English were already standardising their cannons and cannon balls by the time of the Armada.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7899831.stm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/timewatch/lostguns.shtml

 

[Mark-ITSOT]

To further explain

The English navy at around the time of the Armada was evolving revolutionary new tactics, according to new research.

Tests on cannon recovered from an Elizabethan warship suggest it carried powerful cast iron guns, of uniform size, firing standard ammunition.

"This marked the beginning of a kind of mechanisation of war," says naval historian Professor Eric Grove of Salford University.

"The ship is now a gun platform in a way that it wasn't before."

Marine archaeologist Mensun Bound from Oxford University adds: "Elizabeth's navy created the first ever set of uniform cannon, capable of firing the same size shot in a deadly barrage.

"[Her] navy made a giant leap forward in the way men fought at sea, years ahead of England's enemies, and which was still being used to devastating effect by Nelson 200 years later."

Deadly artillery

Until now, it was thought Queen Elizabeth was using the same cannon technology as her father, Henry VIII. His flagship, the Mary Rose, was ultra-modern for its day.

However, it carried a bewildering variety of cannon - many designed for land warfare. They were all of different shapes and sizes, fired different shot at different rates with different killing power.

Cannon lifted from sea bed (BBC/Bellwether)
Elizabeth's navy created the first ever set of uniform cannon, capable of firing the same size shot in a deadly barrage
Mensun Bound, Marine archaeologist

It is known that during Elizabeth's reign, English sailors and gunners became greatly feared. For example, at the beginning of Henry VIII's reign, the English fleet was forced to retreat from heavily armed French galleys.

By the time of Elizabeth, even Phillip of Spain was warning of the deadly English artillery. But no-one has ever been able to clearly show why this was.

The new research follows the discovery of the first wreck of an Elizabethan fighting ship off Alderney in the Channel Islands, thought to date from around 1592, just four years after the Spanish Armada.

The ship was a pinnace, a small ship carrying 12 guns, two of which have been recovered.

"There's a very good chance this ship fought against the Armada with its revolutionary guns, but there's no proof that all or even some of the others were armed similarly," says Saul David, historian and presenter of a BBC Timewatch documentary about the guns.

"Bear in mind that our ship is a pinnace and not a full-size warship. So it is probably going too far to say these guns defeated the Armada four years earlier.

"But they certainly represent a huge leap forward in military technology and may have contributed to the Spanish defeat."

Spain attempted to invade England in 1588 with 200 ships. The Spanish were unable to overcome the English navy, but there were also other reasons for the defeat.

The English used fire ships in a night attack, the Spanish lacked a good deep water harbour to load their troops and they were eventually scattered by a storm.

At the time, Spain was Europe's superpower and Philip II wanted Elizabeth's throne and to return England to Catholicism.

Replica cannon

The two cannon were recovered from the Alderney wreck last summer.

Replicas were recreated in a modern foundry, and tests carried out for the Timewatch documentary showed that the Elizabethans were throwing shot at almost the speed of sound.
Replica cannon being finished (BBC/Bellwether)
The only way to learn about their power was to recreate a cannon

Elizabeth's "supergun", although relatively small, could hit a target a mile away. At a ship-to-ship fighting distance of about 100 yards, the ball would have sufficient punch to penetrate the oak planks of a galleon, travelling across the deck and out the other side.

Elizabeth's navy worked out that a few big guns were less effective than a lot of small guns, all the same, all firing at once.

The English navy stood up to the Spanish Armada. But, perhaps more significantly, as England's reputation for naval prowess was growing, Philip abandoned any further attempts at invasion.

"What we have shown is that the English navy and its gun founders were almost 50 years ahead of their time technologically," concludes Mensun Bound. This made Elizabeth I the mother of British naval dominance lasting three centuries.

Timewatch: Elizabeth's Lost Guns, BBC Two, 2000 GMT, Saturday 21 February. Watch more clips at the BBC Timewatch website
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7899831.stm

 

[Sovereign12]

The relative proportion of nitrates in manure depends on diet, I believe. Grazers like (most) domesticated mammals have lower protein intakes and thus lower proportions in their output. Birds tend to be more omnivorous or carnivorous (ie more protein intake) and thus have higher proportions of nitrates.

Of course, the biggest reason that nitrates were concentrated in the bird guano deposits has already been pointed out: they were concentrated there by the actions of weather and time.

Actually the reason for bird and bat guano having a high concentration of nitrates, especially compared to grazers, isn't because of low protein in the diet for grazers. Many of the plant proteins, while more readily broken done by many grazers than a omnivore, are still not utilized and pass through unchanged.

Most birds do not have a urinary bladder. All the waste fluids are excreted with the solid waste. Urine is high in nitrogen containing compounds and because of the waste solids the liquids do not get readily absorbed into the ground when birds tend to flock in one area for a long time. Bats that are insectivores take in a lot of protein, which means they need to remove a good amount of nitrogen compounds from their system. Because they tend to sleep in caves the urine and excrement fall to the floor, mixing, and accumulating.

So, it is the mixing with the solids and accumulating on a low porous surface, with little water to wash away the nitrates.

http://www.ehow.com/about_6494336_excretory-system-birds-reptiles.html


So, grazing animal's urine could be used for nitrogen compounds if it was collected. You can actually find nitrate crystals in stalls that have not been mucked out for a long time.

The earliest known complete purification process for potassium nitrate was outlined in 1270 by the Arab chemist and engineer Hasan al-Rammah of Syria in his book al-Furusiyya wa al-Manasib al-Harbiyya ('The Book of Military Horsemanship and Ingenious War Devices'), where he first described the use of potassium carbonate (in the form of wood ashes).[2]

Into the 19th century, niter-beds were prepared by mixing manure with either mortar or wood ashes, common earth and organic materials such as straw to give porosity to a compost pile typically 1.5×2×5 meters in size.[3] The heap was usually under a cover from the rain, kept moist with urine, turned often to accelerate the decomposition and leached with water after approximately one year. Dung-heaps were a particularly common source: ammonia from the decomposition of urea and other nitrogenous materials would undergo bacterial oxidation to produce various nitrates, primarily calcium nitrate, which could be converted to potassium nitrate by the addition of potash from wood ashes.

A variation on this process, using only urine, straw and wood ash, is described by LeConte: Stale urine is placed in a container of straw hay and is allowed to sour for many months, after which water is used to wash the resulting chemical salts from the straw. The process is completed by filtering the liquid through wood ashes and air-drying in the sun.[3]

During this period, the major natural sources of potassium nitrate were the deposits crystallizing from cave walls and the accumulations of bat guano in caves. Traditionally guano was the source used in Laos for the manufacture of gunpowder for Bang Fai rockets.

 

[Mark-ITSOT]

What about rockets?

Obviously I'm not talking about multi-stage LEO payload insertion vehicles

 

[Don Lardo]

Most birds do not have a urinary bladder. All the waste fluids are excreted with the solid waste.

In other words, what I wrote nearly two days ago in Post #1567? Bird guano deposits weathered into nitrate rich materials because, among other things, guano is a mixture of feces and urine.

Quoting the text from the link I provided at the same time was a nice touch too.

So, grazing animal's urine could be used for nitrogen compounds if it was collected. You can actually find nitrate crystals in stalls that have not been mucked out for a long time.

With gunpowder for munitions made up of 70-80% nitrates depending on the type, how many musket rounds are you going to produce from uncleaned stalls or bat caves?

European powers operated thousands of niter beds for a reason.

 

[TMS2224]

I think that it has been well argued that the Yadji could only make a little gunpowder. They would need more nitrates to do so. Anyone up for the First Guano War?

 

[Admiral Matt]

You know there's a whole list of advantages the Yadji had in facing off against their first Europeans. Certainly their engineering skills, iron use, and religiously motivated ability to simply drop a civil war were all important. Their extreme distance from Europe is also a strength.

I feel, however, that we've thus far failed to mention what is by far the single most significant factor: smallpox.

Cortez conquered the Aztecs in the midst of a massive epidemic that (IIRC) also overlapped with outbreaks of measles and mumps. Pizarro took advantage of arriving in Ecuador just after smallpox had burnt through. Nuyts was taking advantage of a plague-induced civil war, sure enough, but on a comparative scale the Yadji were undamaged and far between plagues. Had the disease arrived in Aururia either before or with him it would likely have been an entirely different war.

For want of a used blanket....

 

[Sovereign12]

In other words, what I wrote nearly two days ago in Post #1567? Bird guano deposits weathered into nitrate rich materials because, among other things, guano is a mixture of feces and urine.

Quoting the text from the link I provided at the same time was a nice touch too.



With gunpowder for munitions made up of 70-80% nitrates depending on the type, how many musket rounds are you going to produce from uncleaned stalls or bat caves?

European powers operated thousands of niter beds for a reason.

If you look back at my post I never said anything about the Yadji producing gun powder at all. I was pointing out that you can still get nitrates from grazers and why there is a higher source of nitrates produced from bird and bat guano.

And the reason for the nitrates being produced isn't because of weathering. Weathering implies rock being broken down by a chemical reaction with the components of the atmosphere or biological source. Just because much of the nitrates that are mined comes from caves has nothing to do with the weathering process. Most is either a natural chemical reaction and/or deposited as waste from the biota living in the guano. I stomped around enough farms, forests, water sources, and caves to get samples for the USGS and Pa-DEP back in the 90s in order to study water and soil quality to know something about it.

 

[Don Lardo]

If you look back at my post I never said anything about the Yadji producing gun powder at all.

Your post was nothing more than a repetition of my earlier one. You even cut and pasted text from the same link I'd already provided.

I was pointing out that you can still get nitrates from grazers and why there is a higher source of nitrates produced from bird and bat guano.

Which I had already done when I explained that bird guano was a mixture of feces and urine.

And the reason for the nitrates being produced isn't because of weathering.

Weather is the reason nitrates are concentrated in soils which contain ancient deposits of guano. Just as the urine-wetting and leeching of "soured" mixtures in a niter-bed farm does, weathering forms the nitrate-laden caliche along South America's Pacific Coast and on "guano islands" that everyone always brings up in these threads.

 

[DG Valdron]

I'm going to have to pull you up there. Recent archaeological evidence shows the English were already standardising their cannons and cannon balls by the time of the Armada.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7899831.stm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/timewatch/lostguns.shtml

That's quite interesting. But it doesn't change my underlying point that there's an incremental process of upgrading, and if you're starting at the bottom of the curve you get rubbishy cannons

But fascinating articles. My thanks.

 

[DG Valdron]

Whether successful or not, I'm starting to wonder about the spin off effects of an effort to develop a nitrates/gunpowder infrastructure, or even to try and develop firearms might have on Yadji society and technology. Even a failed or broadly unsuccessful effort might introduce new technologies or new applications which might diverge in interesting ways

Let me kick it around some more.

 

[Don Lardo]

Whether successful or not, I'm starting to wonder about the spin off effects of an effort to develop a nitrates/gunpowder infrastructure, or even to try and develop firearms might have on Yadji society and technology.

Undoubtedly there will be spin offs. Time is the issue however.

The Yadji aren't going to start deploying tercios in a few years and they, like the rest of the inhabitants of this Australia, aren't going to be able to prevent the destruction/transformation of their culture either. We've seen the religious among Yadji continually talking about their version of the "end of days" or "apocalypse" and those fears and/or predictions are correct.

Whether the Yadji are conquered in a classical military sense or not, their civilizations is finished in it's current form. Europe has arrived with it's diseases, technologies, worldview, and needs. Everything is going to change after that, everything cannot help but change after that.

The heirs of the Yadji, cultural or otherwise, are going to derive benefits from the Yadji exposure to European technology and other ideas. The Yadji themselves, however, will not have the time to derive many benefits before they, their culture, and their civilization is engulfed by the Europeans or the changes the Europeans' arrival has already triggered.

Cultures in the OTL worldwide were either destroyed or hugely transformed after contact. The fate of the cultures in Australia ITTL will be no different.

 

[Jared]

Training's a bitch though. "Okay, guys, watch closely because I'm only going to demonstrate this once".

The practical examination would be fun, too.

Following up, I don't see the metallurgical issues as being surmountable in any meaningful way by the Yadji.

If you look at the history of cannon and firearms, you find a long history of fairly rubbishy performance, with improvement accreting only gradually, through an incremental collection of improvements.

They'll be very hard, yes, and the Yadji are operating from a much smaller population base, too. Especially post the main wave of Eurasian diseases.

Assuming they do build a rubbishy crap unreliable cannon, what good does it do them. There's an advantage perhaps over cultures without cannon, in special circumstances. But there's no way for them to compete with European cannon literally two or three hundred years more advanced with all the incremental improvements that made them an effective tool.

The main advantage of even cheap and dodgy cannon, from a Yadji point of view, would be that they would be better than nothing at reducing fortifications to rubble. That applies both to internal enemies (rebels, future civil wars), and external rivals (Tjibarr, Gutjanal). Fortifications have been what nullified the Yadji numerical advantage over their neighbours, and even weak cannon would reduce that.

Of course, that wouldn't put them on a footing to compete with Euros, by any stretch of the imagination.

And naturally, for even this much to happen, this presumes that the European powers have decided not to interfere too much with internal Aururian politics (ie just trade for what they want). I consider this unlikely, to say the least.

The only way the Yadji are going to be able to develop their own cannon in a manner competitive with the Europeans, is if they literally go out and buy a European metallurgical complex. ie - import a fair number of european engineers, foundry workers, etc., and throw tons of money at them while they overhaul a Yadji metallurgical complex almost from scratch while training the locals. It's not ASB, but it would definitely be uphill, requiring some kind of effective commercial relationship, a willing european partner and a conceptual grasp of the problem, none of which exist at this point.

That's about what would be needed. And as you point out, it would require a European power who were willing to upskill the Yadji in virtually everything.

About the only circumstances I can think of where that would happen would be if the European powers are using the native powers to fight proxy wars against each other, in a bid to secure control of trade markets. That's not entirely impossible, but presumes that the Euros would find it cheaper to build up local effort than to ship muskets and cannon from Europe (and powder from India) and trade them to the Yadji. Which I suspect is unlikely.

Of course, in the next fifty or hundred years, some enterprising Europeans might decide or perhaps could be persuaded that the Yadji infrastructure is useful to build on to give them an advantage in local markets. ie, that its cheaper in the long run to train up a Yadji metal/manufacturing complex than it is to shlep stuff all the way from Europe. But that seems iffy.

Yeah, sounds problematic. The Euros would be thinking in terms of dominating local markets, not building up infrastructure. Again, unless there is somehow an ongoing proxy war where it's worth it to prop up the natives.

In contrast, everything I've read about gunpowder suggests its a much more portable technology available to organized societies. Very hard for disorganized societies. But basically, all you need is the social sophistication to identify or refine the different constituents (which are to be found at different locations or produced through different refining processes) and then bring them together mixing according to relatively crude measuring ratios.

Gunpowder is easier, although that is a relative term. (As Don Lardo points out, the logistical effort required is still huge.)

But well within the Yadji level of technology. The question for the Yadji is are they sufficiently flexible to incorporate and make use of gunpowder technology independently of the way in which it has been presented to them.

Or perhaps that the Yadji still trade for their cannon and muskets, but work out that producing a local powder industry is cheaper than buying powder as well. And allows a bit of independence if their powder supplier is cut off. Again, not likely, but may happen if circumstances fall that way.

If all they can conceive is to use it for cannon or gun, then forget it, that part of the package is definitely out of their reach. If, on the other hand, they can find applications or uses for it which have not been shown to them, but are within the capacity of their technological package.... then they've got something. But the curve for that level of inventiveness is highly variable, depending on the flexibilitiy of the culture and the brilliance of individuals drawn to the problem.

Grenades? Much more viable. I can't put my hands on the reference work right now (much of my life is in boxes). But I seem to recall that ceramic or clay pot grenades were actually in use in the Byzantine empire well before gunpowder made its way over. Basically, the kinetic energy of the throw and impact was sufficient to make for a nasty bang, particularly if you had the interior filled with an incendiary, like oil, pitch or coals. Gunpowder only increased that.

May be something which occurs to the Yadji. Or, for that matter, which they find out about through prolonged European contact. But while they may work it out eventually, they will still need to survive the first, rather crucial years.

As a final thought - actually having a few cannon to test might be of great use to the Yadji in one respect - it may help to improve their ability to cope with or design tactics to help neutralize cannon or firearms. These aren't out of the question, conceptually. Earthwork fortifications and barriers rather than walls, foxholes and trenches, tactics or construction to reduce line of sight, forcing battles to take place under circumstances where the Yadji can preserve their forces and get their enemy within striking distance.

Y'know, that's a very good point. While the Yadji are far behind Old World technology in so many areas, their engineers are actually pretty good. Not exactly up to the peak of Renaissance technology, but pretty experienced at working in stone, excavations etc. If the Yadji do have some experience with cannon (even purchased ones), they may figure out more of those tactics pretty quickly.

I am reminded of the 'pa' of the New Zealand Land Wars. Originally, the Maori built these near their villages as storehouses, made defensible to protect their harvest from being stolen. The British considered them to be forts, and put a major emphasis on capturing them, even at considerable cost; while the Maori put no strategic value on them. Over time the Maori learned to put them up as defensive works, quickly put up and readily abandoned. The British would attack them and consider it a victory to capture one. On the other hand, the Maori considered it a victory that they had bled the Britsh attackers, en route and at the attack, and had escaped successfully.

Ah, yes, the Maori Wars were an interesting time for the British. They didn't really grasp just how Maori society worked, and pas just made as decoys from the Maori point of view. They lived and raised their crops elsewhere.

That reminds me, will we get to see what the Maori have been up to any time soon in this TL?

At some point, but it's lower on the list of things to show since it will be more or less the last area of the Third World which the Europeans reach. From the Euro point of view, there's not that much to attract about the Maori: a warlike, numerous people, with not much of the gold, drugs or spices which are so attractive about Aururia proper.

The next couple of posts I make will probably be about the Kiyungu (who are being transformed in their own way, too) and a broader-world view which shows the outcome of the *Thirty Years War in Europe and what becomes of Sweden's little New World venture.

What about rockets?

Obviously I'm not talking about multi-stage LEO payload insertion vehicles

I don't know if the Yadji would be that creative. (The Gunnagal might, but that's another story.)

If memory serves, rockets were pretty much a sideshow in Old World terms anyway, at least until the late eighteenth century.

With gunpowder for munitions made up of 70-80% nitrates depending on the type, how many musket rounds are you going to produce from uncleaned stalls or bat caves?

In North America, at least, salpetre caves were a significant source of production for power up until about the 1870s. See here for one source about that.

European powers operated thousands of niter beds for a reason.

European powers, I suspect, had a demand for powder which was at least an order of magnitude higher than what North America demanded until the 1870s. But I wouldn't rule it out as a possible source of saltpetre for the Yadji. Their demands for powder wouldn't be that much worse than that of the early nineteenth century USA, I suspect.

None of which solves the sulphur problem, but I digress.

I think that it has been well argued that the Yadji could only make a little gunpowder. They would need more nitrates to do so. Anyone up for the First Guano War?

If memory serves, even European nitrate production was mostly out-competed by saltpetre production from India anyway. It was just much cheaper that way. At least in the UK, that was a problem, and I think that France had to take a variety of steps to ensure that some local production survived.

Saltpetre would be cheaper to ship from India to Aururia than to Europe, assuming that the EIC or VOC is in the trading business and willing to sell it.

I feel, however, that we've thus far failed to mention what is by far the single most significant factor: smallpox.

I haven't forgotten it, at least. Smallpox will hit Aururia eventually, but the long sailing distances make it much more difficult for it to spread. It won't come directly from Europe via infected people (the infection would burn out too quickly). It might last on infected blankets or the like, but even that has difficulty persisting for a six-month plus voyage.

The most likely vector for smallpox to hit southern Aururia is actually if the Nangu keep up their trade with Jakarta. That's a shorter voyage, and it would be easier for the virus to persist on blankets or clothing or the like.

Undoubtedly there will be spin offs. Time is the issue however.

Oh, yes, very much so. The Yadji are staring down the barrel, in a manner of speaking.

They are a long way from Europe - at the arse-end of the world, in fact - but they have resources which Europe wants, and one way or another, the trading companies are going to get it.

The only advantage the Yadji have - and it's a small one - is that the logistics are horrible for projecting power that far, and the trading companies may decide that it's just cheaper to trade for gold and spices. Even with trade, though, as you point out, European influence will follow.

The heirs of the Yadji, cultural or otherwise, are going to derive benefits from the Yadji exposure to European technology and other ideas. The Yadji themselves, however, will not have the time to derive many benefits before they, their culture, and their civilization is engulfed by the Europeans or the changes the Europeans' arrival has already triggered.

Cultures in the OTL worldwide were either destroyed or hugely transformed after contact. The fate of the cultures in Australia ITTL will be no different.

Ayup. About the best possible case for the Yadji is that they, or their successors, become an informal dependency of one European trading company or another. (Which more or less means the Dutch or the English, in the short term). Even that will produce all of the challenges and changes that you list.

A more formal protectorate is another possibility, which will change things even more.

The absolute worst case more or less goes without saying.

 

[DG Valdron]

The main advantage of even cheap and dodgy cannon, from a Yadji point of view, would be that they would be better than nothing at reducing fortifications to rubble. That applies both to internal enemies (rebels, future civil wars), and external rivals (Tjibarr, Gutjanal). Fortifications have been what nullified the Yadji numerical advantage over their neighbours, and even weak cannon would reduce that.

But much cheaper and easier to purchase cannon from the Europeans for that purpose. Also, something of a risk - the neighbors and rivals can easily trump any homemade cannon by seeking to purchase their own.

And naturally, for even this much to happen, this presumes that the European powers have decided not to interfere too much with internal Aururian politics (ie just trade for what they want). I consider this unlikely, to say the least.

Path of least resistance. They'll do what's cheapest and easiest.

 

[TMS2224]

Path of least resistance. They'll do what's cheapest and easiest.

Agreed. Why spend tons of money on conquest when you can easily trade for the gold?

 

[DG Valdron]

I suppose this begs the question of what Europeans have that the Auruarians would be desperate to get their hands on.

Cannon and firearms for one thing. I wonder what else?

Thought - the eviction of any possibility of dutch interests from the Yadji kingdom may be a prelude to polarisation of the continent, with different european factions partnering with different aurouarian interests. We'll see how it goes.