1938 The confrontation with Germany

seraphim74

The Poles and the French are east of Smolensk? Then I do not think any Soviet attack can reach Warsaw at all. Sorry, but it is simply impossible. However, Army Group North can be cut off if the Soviets turn north east of Vilnius. Otherwise, the Red Army will have very long, narrow, extremely hard to keep corridor. Since the Allies control Baltic, they can supply Army Group North by sea. And German forces from south can cut off Soviet advancing forces.
The only way that offensive can succeed is to beat Poles and especially the French. Why especially them? To beat France psychologicaly, to shock French public opinion enough to get France out of the war and at least force the Allies to peace negotiations (and Stalin can forget about Ukraine, I think).
Now, what should the Allies do? Let's assume the Soviet attack crashes Polish-French lines and forces them far west. Do the Soviets have enough strength to engage Germans in north and south so they will not be able to help the centre? I have my doubts. As Allied advisor I would recommend Poles and French going back in fighting retreat, exposing Soviet flanks to German counter attacks. Army Group North shall keep its front with infantry and throw all its armour against Soviets' back and flank. The same in south, to create the biggest cauldron ever.
 

chris N

September 15th ,1939 The weather in Russia has started to turn cooler. Rains have forced the stop to construction work. Polish cavalry uints that were at Borodino have come under heavy attack by Soviet Foces and have pulled back. There have been a series of local attacks by Soviet forces against Army Group North and South.

Moscow: Another meeting of the Soviet War committee has ended. reinforcements have been sent to both Soviet fronts facing the German allied forces. More local attacks are to take place to push the French closer to Poland. The masive build up of Soviet forces continues.
 

chris N

The Russians launched sharp counter offensives against all three of the allied army groups. None of them were the big offensives. In the South the 3rd Romanian Army took a thumping from the aggressive Soviet Front commander which required the Germans to launch a counter attack with its 1st Panzer Army.

Army group North got hit on its forward position som 35 miles east northeast of St Petersburg (the allies had renamed the city of Leningrad). It was a sharp attack which lasted 3 days before ending and then 6 days latter another attack occurred 125 miles to the south.

The Franco-Polish Army group was hit by three probing attacks which drove the forward positions closer to the main depot. The attacks continued for nearly two weeks ending with the allies pushed back in the center some 20 miles.

With the alled victories Churchill called for a new election for October 14. The Conservatives were way ahead in the polls and it looked like they would win with a 80-90 seate majority. The capture of Lenin grad, Murmansk and the victory in the Black Sea had really raised the Conservatives in the Polls. The British had suffered very few loses in the war so far.

In France the French Premier had a firm grip on the country. The leftist unions had been severly handicapped by his use of conscription to break strikes. The French Parliament had outlawed the Communist party but the Socialist were nearly as bad.

Franco was still attempting to put his country back together but he expressed a willingness to increase Spain's contribution to the war against the Soviets with another Division, providing that the Germans were willing to supply it with arms and equipment. At this point the Germans were willing to do it because they needed more forces just in case.

Germany was still in the process of mobilizing 24 additional divisions and it was taking longer than expected to provide them with the trucks and artillery that they needed. Production was increasing and with no threat to German industry it should continue to rise.

To the Far East an early winter storm had ended the ability of the Japanese to continue offensive opperations. The was still some resistance in Vladivostok but the Japanese now held most of the rubble that represented the city.
 

chris N

Current situation: Stalin was now really in a box. he had only 1 port available to him on the White Sea and soon it would be closed to him as a result of ice. his windows on the Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific were all gone. His contact with the rest of the world was limited to the Caspian Sea with Persia and to China.

Stalin was secretly supplying arms to Afghans to raid India and more arms to China to contain the Japanese.
Recent limited counter offensives had resulted in some territorial gains by the Soviets. Still for the Great offensive to work the Soviets must conduct limited attacks which could keep the two German Army Groups too busy to aid the French-Polish one. It was a risky strategy but if it worked then the Russians might vry well knock Poland and France out of the war.

Comments-suggestions?
 

seraphim74

France yes, Poland not. At that time Poland was simply too stubborn to surrender. They didn't do it IOTL despite Poland being totally occupied. However, knocking France out of the war might force the Allies to start peace negotiations with Stalin.
I wonder what USA is doing. Probably nothing - isolationism is really strong and the Americans see no reason to interfere
 

chris N

Discussion: Actually the Thinking of Stalin and the Russian Military establishment is to hurt the French and Poles so badly that they would be willing to make a seperate peace. This does not mean Poland surrendering but forcing it to drop out of the war.

At this point the Franco-Polish Army group has taken a few hits and it has been forced back toward its main base at Smolensk . The Russians have built up a formidable attack force for the operation and each day it grows larger. The plan involves a series of blows designed to get the Germans and the allies nervous about their fronts forcing them to commit reserves or to withhold them from supporting the Franco-Polish Army group (ie Center) when the hammer blow hits them.

Some advisers are urging Stalin to delay the offensive until January when the new T-34 tank may be ready to make an appearance. This tank would clearly give the Russians a major boost as only the Germans have tanks that might be able to challenge it. Improvements to the PZ III and Pz IV are on the way as a result of experienced gained in the campaigin . Among the changes switiching to the more powerful long 50mm/l60 on the PZIII and fully to a long 75mm on the PZ IV. The long 75mm gun has started to make an appearance in the tank force.
There is also a move to reorganize the Panzer Battalion creating battalions entirely of either Pz III or IV.

Erwin Rommel as noted has moved up to corp command and he may be promoted to Army command as Field Marshal List is up for a possible transfer to command Army Group C as the commander of this group has fallen ill and has been put on the retirement list.

Marshal Balbo has agreed to provide the Italian 8th Army with another Corp in return for German supplying the Panzer Division with PZIII.
 

seraphim74

Hm, I can see Stalin thinking so. He might be even right. With France out of war Poland looses an ally which supplies Polish army with modern equipment. That + psychological shock after stunning Soviet success - that might force the Allies to peace talks. However, Stalin can not hope for much. If he regains everything he lost (Leningrad, Ukraine, Crime, Caucasus) he would be extreremely lucky. Personally I think he can count on reclaiming Leningrad and Caucasus, Ukraine+Crimea - not so much. Germans are strong there and they have Ukrainian auxiliaries.
Please continue.
 

chris N

Churchill's stunning election victory put the Conservative party firmly in power. It was helped by allied victories at St Petersburg, Sevastopol Kiev, Murmansk and elsewhere in the Ukraine.

However, British attempt at occupying the Caucasus region had proved to be a major headache. Georgia had not proven to be the worst but the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis seemed to have an endless blood feud. It was hard enough stamping out the remnants of the Red Army forces in the region but it was as bad as the Northwest frontier.

Stalin demanded that resistance in the region be kept going.

It was now mid October and the weather had already turned cold. The first snow storm had hit and it looked like it would be a nasty winter. The Luftwaffe and the British were conducting weather studies and what they say really ran a chill down the military staff. It looked like this would not be a normal winter.

Washington: Fdr was very concern with the aggressive attitute of the Japanese and he dispatched the following message to Prime Minister Churchill.
Dear Winston,
Congradualations on your stunning election victory. I must say that I have grave concerns about the ongoing war in Russia. I would suggest that consideration must be given to the fact that this might result in the situation in the Far East becoming much worst. I know that we share a concern about Japanese aggression against China. The Destruction of Russia will result in Japan grabbing more of Siberia and China.

I also believe that there may be more problems in the Caucasus region as a result of your intervention. I urge you to work out a deal that would best serve Europes and the world. Sincerely yours Franklin
 

chris N

Germany suggested an Allied Military conference to take Place in Danzig. Arriving was General Georges, Field Marshal Leeb, Field Marshal Beck and representatives from the Austrian, Hungarian, Polish, Finnish and Romanian Military. Discussed was the growing problem on the Eastern Front of a Soviet Counter offensive. The Germans were sure that it was coming but unsure as to what area it would hit.

In separate talks between the Finnish and German Military representatives it was believed that there was no threat to Finland or to an effort to recapture St Petersburg.

German intelligence was also concern that there might be a mole in the allied military. It was suspected that it might be in the French Military Staff or even in the Polish military. The Germans had to be very careful who they talked to but General DeGual was approached about the possibility of a soviet agent in the French Military. He in turn sent for French Counter intelligence agents from France and the hunt began. The Germans presented the three likey suspects.
It was much more difficult with the Poles as German-Polish Military relations were touchy. A Romanian officer who had been checked out was chosen to approach the Poles. Thus the hunt for a possible Red Agent began quietly.

London: Churchill was in receipt of FDR message. He wondered what the President was up to. He Sent the following:
Dear Franklin, I Share your concern regarding the activities of the Japanese in China and perhaps attempts by that country to swallow up parts of the Russian Empire. However, if we make peace with Stalin I fear that we will just be putting a resolution of this conflict off to a time where it might cost more lives. We will condemn the people of the USSR to continued oppression and slavery by the Communist thugs. I am affraid that for that very reason I can not agree with making a peace with Stalin, which would allow that system to continue.

Sincerely, Winston
 

chris N

Discussion Topic Germany and the Eastern Front Allies:

Germany was being drawn deeper into the war on the eastern front. The war with Czechoslovakia and Austria had shown that Germany was woefully
ill prepared to fight a war in 1938. Corrections had been made and Germany had stayed out of the conflict in 1939 for as long as it could. When Germany did intervene its tanks had more powerful guns and its forces were far more mobile than they had been the year before.

German production had been increasing of tanks, trucks, artillery pieces, half-tracks and aircraft. This had allowed for expansion of the German army close to where it had been. The trouble was that Germans allies were poorly equipped to fight a modern war. Germany had given Romania all of the captured Czech tanks and the Austrians had turned over all of their LT-35 to the Romanians replacing them with LT-38. Italy's tanks had proven to be hard pressed to deal with the Soviet T-26 and BT-7s and forget facing the heavier Soviet armor. The Hungarian tanks also had proven to be in need of replacement should the Soviets field more heavy tanks. This was now forcing Germany to divert some of increasing production to help arm its allies. It was one of the conditions that Marshal Balbo had made for increased Italian forces on the Eastern front.

Czechoslovakia was continuing to sell tanks to Romania and Austria but Russia reminded the Czechs of the aide that it had provided so there arrival of tanks was unning behind. The result was that Germany was now having to provide tanks to the Italians, Hungarians and Romanians> This meant that nearly 1/5th of the 450 PZIII produced were going to allied armies and not to the German army. Production of tanks and Half tracks was higher than in OTL mainly because Germany was not facing any allied bombing and it was getting the raw materials needed to produce them. But demand was increasing. Germany was being forced to sell more modern aircraft to its allies because the Hungarian and Romanian Air Force lacked enough modern fighter aircraft. The ME 109 had become the mainstay fighter of the Romanian, Hungarian, German and Finnish Air Forces. It also was the one currently being used by the Spanish Air Force. Italy would soon be fielding better fighter aircraft and it was certain to supply the Austrians with then.

The question was could the German industry ratchet up production even more so as to not only replace loses, supply the allies and equip more German divisions?
 

chris N

Russia and The Balkans: While the Western allies seemed to have won over a lot of the nations f the Balkans not everything was going the allied way. In Yugoslavia the government continued to remain neutral due to its historically strong relationship with Russia and of course an active Communist Party. Bulgaria also expressed no desire to be drawn into the war and the Soviet embassy was still operating there. Indeed Soviet Intelligence operations were ongoing. They attempted to provide Moscow with info regarding Allied Ship movement and what was going on in countries such as Romania. Indeed the Bulgarians seemed to be willing to spy for the Russians.

Russia had also played upon Greek distrust of the Turks to help keep the Turks from joining the war.
 

chris N

Operation ICE STORM:

Plans for the Russian Offensive now began to switch to high gear. The weather was becoming colder and the Russian Forces had completed their training. Nearly 500.000 Soviet soldiers had assembled. The number of tanks that had been gathered was incredible too. Tanks 450 T-26, 450 BT-7 , 125 KV1, 30 KV2 30 T-28. Everyday more manpower and equipment arrived. Soviet Planes were also arriving and fields had been camouflaged.

Marshal Zhukov told Stalin that the tentative date to launch the offensive was November 18th. Between the Forces already in the Central Front and the reinforcement he expected to have about 1.2 million troops and perhaps 1800 tanks.
 

chris N

Operation Winter Star was launched by the Soviet Nothwestern Front against Army Group North. It was designed to keep the allies off Balance 6 tank brigades and 8 infantry divisions struck 80 miles south east of St Peters burg. Two days latter near the Ukrainian-Russian border the South Eastern Front launched a massive offensive with 12 tank brigades 12 infantry divisions, 4 cavalry divisions and 6 artillery divisions.

Finally on November 22,1939 after a massive artillery barrage the Red Army struck the Franco-Polish Army group with a massive army .
 

Geekhis Khan

And the die is cast. :D

Well played on the diplomatic front, chris. Very realistic responses from the various nations.

I'm with Seraphim on the Red attack: get France to the table and you change the diplomatic and strategic shape of the war completely.
 

chris N

The earth was shaking around Smolensk from the pounding of the soviet artillery. The russians were firing everything that they had from the 203mm guns to the 45mm ATG. The shelling continued for nearly two hours before it move deeper. The Soviet tank force then began rumbling forward.
The French 155 mm guns had been firing back at the Russian but a lot of them were silenced under the weigh of the Soviet Fire. French Heavy tanks engaged the advancing Soviet Monsters. Some shots just bounced off. The French did Knock out some of the monsters but lost quite a few of their Char Bis and C tanks. General George commanded the response and received a report that a Polish Infantry division to the North had been over run.
 

chris N

The Germans had been busy as there had been attacks against Army Group North and Army Group South. In fact the attacks against Army Group South's forward positions were quite nasty and it appeared that the Soviets were throwing addition forces into the battle. Communication with the French had stopped. The weather was not the kind that would allow the Luftwaffe recon aircraft to give the army a good idea of what was happening. Weather forecast called for 3 days before the weather would clear enough to allow flying.
 

chris N

The Soviets had breeched the French-Polish First Defense line and were about to break through the Second. General DeGaul had gather the French Mobile forces and broken through the Russian encirclement. He had bought tme for the rest of the French and Polish Army to escape.

The Polish 10th Armored Division had thrown itself into the battle and had manage to resure Deaul's force but the price had been awful out of 4 tank battalion it had barely 2 battalions left. Loses were fantastic. The French Char Bis abd Char C tanks were attempt to stem the Russian Heavy tanks but most were lost to the 76,2mm guns of the soviet monsters.

Contact with the main HQ in Warsaw was lost for nealy 6 hours. It was only after noon that the French and Polish HQ became aware of the massive Soviet thrust. Berlin was made aware shortly there after.

Word arrived from Army Group South that a massive Soviet thrust was accourring near the Black Sea It appeared that the Soviet Front commander was throwing all of his reserves into the battle in order to keep the German from sending any forces to the north.

Army Group South had been subdivided into two seperate Group. North Ukraine- German 1st PZ Army (Kliest) German 6th (Mainstein) and Hungarian 2.
Mainstein had for the past few days felt that something was in the wind. He had ordered the Sith Army to a high state of alert. He had 1 German Pz Division, 5 German Infantry divisions, 1 German-Ukrainian Panzer Division and 3 Ukrainian Infantry divisions, 1 German Assault Gun Brigade. He was also supervising another Ukrainian Infantry corp. He was concern at the sudden silence from the north. He was meeting with Erwin Rommel to discuss his views when the phone rang. It was Field Marshal Beck and he needed to speak to the Senior officer Present.
Von Mainstein took the phone as Rommel was only a corp commander.
Briefly Beck explained the collapse of the French to the North and urged Mainstein to prepare to move at a moments notice. The General shouted for his aide to contact the Hungarians and tell them to warm up their Panzer III. The fate of the Russian campaign might be in their hands. Rommel called his divisional commanders and attempted to contact his superior. It appeared that Kleist was experiencing communication problems so Rommel prepared to act with von Mainstein.

Comments Suggestions?
 

chris N

General Georges message to the French War office telling of the idsaster in the east was read with Shock. How could France's most powerful army have suffered such serious loses. Someone in the war office leaked it to the Press and the Headlines read:

FRENCH ARMY IN THE EAST IS LOST IN TREMENDOUS RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE


The newspaper story was a distortion of the facts but the people did not know that.

Prime Minister Churchill was on the phone to France and he also talkedto the German Chancellor.
 
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