AHC: President Taft beats Wilson and Roosevelt in 1912

Nofix

Here's a fun one, have the guy who suffered one of the worst electoral defeats for an incumbent beat his more popular challengers.

POD can be as soon as Taft takes office.
 

1940LaSalle

:D This is a tough one, no doubt. Going to throw out a few off-the-cuff ideas:

  • Wilson's true colors as an unregenerate southern racist are somehow revealed. That might tilt some northern Democrats into the Taft column but that alone won't begin to do it. For the sake of discussion let's say that costs Wilson nothing in the former Confederate states (plus MD, KY, MO, and OK) and maybe 5% elseswhere.
  • Wilson's involvement (for lack of a better word) with one Mrs. Peck (don't have either a first name memorized or my copy of Heckscher's biography at hand) in about 1909 (?) is made public with as much detail as possible. That would alienate a fair number of voters on either side of the Mason-Dixon line, especially if Wilson was evasive in responding to questions. Again for discussion let's say that costs Wilson 5% across the board.
  • TR would have to fall seriously ill with a relapse of a dormant tropical ailment picked up on any one of his expeditions--enough so that his future health would be in doubt. Assuming it appears to be life-threatening, let's assume 60% of the TR vote IOTL defects: 5 of 6 voters switching would to swing to Taft since they're likely GOP in the first place; the other, to Wilson on progressive grounds.
Given all three of the above--highly unlikely IMO--TR gets no EVs; Taft wins in the electoral college by a count of 295 to 236. However, he'd wind up finishing second to Wilson in the popular vote by an eyelash (about 75,000 votes out of 14.8 million cast). That popular vote count, though, may be somewhat misleading given the fact that the southern states would go not quite unanimously for Wilson. My sense is that there would have to be a lot of cross-aisle trading to get much of anything done during a second Taft administration like this.
 
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