WI:Soviet Union had invaded Poland first in 1939

Derek Pullem · Mar 10, 2011

The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and the subsequent Anglo-Polish Common Defense Pact set the scene for the beginning of World War II. In our timeline the Germans invaded first which triggered a declaration of war from the Allies.

What if Russia had invaded first? Britain was not obligated to declare war on Russia under the protocols to the Common Defense pact which specified germany as the antagonist the pact was designed to combat.

Would Britain have declared war on USSR or would the appeasers have been able to prevent a declaration. Assuming Russia eventually overcame Polish resistance (probable but by no means certain - would take longer than OTL for sure) and Grmany played the role of Russia moving in to occupy the corridor and Western Poland "to protect ethnic Germans" would Britain and France declare war to support a nation that had already been defeated?

How would the rest of WWII play out particularly a later invasion of Finland - would Britian and France intervene in this timeline as they planned in our time line.

Could this lead to a 1940 Barbarossa by Germany with Britain and France as co-beligerants against the Soviet Union in Finland and the Caucasus?

Pischinovski · Mar 10, 2011

this is very interresting, i wait for answers....

Letum · Mar 10, 2011

France and the British Empire would likely view the two as allies, much like they did OTL when they considered war over Finland. Any German "protection" of the corridor would be portrayed as an Invasion. The reason there was no war over Soviet actions OTL is likely a combination of them being two far away and not wanting to add an extra burden to face when Germany is the main threat - here, German domination of Mitteleuropa will still be the main concern. The USSR is not on the French border.

Them attacking the Soviets alongside Germany is pretty unlikely, and should Barbarossa occur you might get a quick "armistice" between the Allies/Soviets as they concentrate on a "greater" threat. Still, such a move is likely to significantly hamper the probability of effective co-ordination or lend-lease. The bad scenario is Hitler not launching his assault, and the partnership remaining active throughout the war. The Soviets/Germans would be mistrustful of each other, but without the millions of troops fighting in the Eastern Front and with Germany retaining access to Raw Materials, the allies have it bad. And with the USSR far away from the western allies, Stalin would be content to fight a few relatively small skirmishes in Scandinavia or Central Asia, and let Germany keep the west busy.

But given Stalin's historic caution, such a move is not terribly likely. Avoiding a war with France/England was a central concern for the Soviets, precisely because of the probability of uniting Europe against them.

Derek Pullem · Mar 10, 2011

Letum said:
France and the British Empire would likely view the two as allies, much like they did OTL when they considered war over Finland. Any German "protection" of the corridor would be portrayed as an Invasion. The reason there was no war over Soviet actions OTL is likely a combination of them being two far away and not wanting to add an extra burden to face when Germany is the main threat - here, German domination of Mitteleuropa will still be the main concern. The USSR is not on the French border.

Them attacking the Soviets alongside Germany is pretty unlikely, and should Barbarossa occur you might get a quick "armistice" between the Allies/Soviets as they concentrate on a "greater" threat. Still, such a move is likely to significantly hamper the probability of effective co-ordination or lend-lease. The bad scenario is Hitler not launching his assault, and the partnership remaining active throughout the war. The Soviets/Germans would be mistrustful of each other, but without the millions of troops fighting in the Eastern Front and with Germany retaining access to Raw Materials, the allies have it bad. And with the USSR far away from the western allies, Stalin would be content to fight a few relatively small skirmishes in Scandinavia or Central Asia, and let Germany keep the west busy.

But given Stalin's historic caution, such a move is not terribly likely. Avoiding a war with France/England was a central concern for the Soviets, precisely because of the probability of uniting Europe against them.

Yes - I can see that logic. But why would the Anglo-Polish treaty explicitly exclude Russia as a "European" country to which Poland was entitled to Britiah protection.

I'm not convinced that a Russian invasion of Poland would result in a British and French declaration of war. If Britain did not declare war against Russia I can see it causing a government crisis in the UK with the more hawkish elements gaining more influence.

Let's extend the scenario a little. Say The USSR eventually defeats Poland in April 1940 and voluntarily cedes the Western part of Poland to Germany. Now would the Allies declare war?

USSR bullies the Baltics into submission as per OTL and Germany extends its influence into the future Axis minors

The Winter War kicks off in December 1940, a year late.

What next?

Rudi Maxer · Mar 11, 2011

France would declare war on Soviet Union anyway. Germany using Soviet attack as excuse to invading Poland would be probably seen as further act of aggression by Britain and France, and result in France and UK vs Germany and Russia war.

I Blame Communism · Mar 11, 2011

Letum said:
But given Stalin's historic caution, such a move is not terribly likely. Avoiding a war with France/England was a central concern for the Soviets, precisely because of the probability of uniting Europe against them.

That's the key thing. The Soviets never planned to invade first: they actually had to move their plans forward because of the speed of the German advance.

Orry · Mar 11, 2011

Maybe the Poles do a lot better against the Russians than they did against the Germans?

I Blame Communism · Mar 11, 2011

Orry said:
Maybe the Poles do a lot better against the Russians than they did against the Germans?

The fighting was effectively over when the Russians joined in (again, they were surprised by the swiftness of the campaign). Most mobile Polish forces were compelled to sit on the border and hence quickly cut up and finished off, Warsaw was besieged and nothing could save it, and the Germans had actually advanced well beyond the final partition line. They drew back and handed captured Bialystok and besieged Lviv (without which there could be no large-scale Romanian bridgehead) to the Russians.

The reason there was any fighting at all is that the Red Army was not very good, as the Winter War was about to show. Polish home-guard who were not mobile formations and had no chance against the Germans were able to briefly hold them up.

Emperor of Halton · Mar 11, 2011

It's been pointed out that this scenario isn't very likely, but in the event of Britain and France seeing Germany and the USSR as allies, will they still declare war on Germany?

kclcmdr · Mar 11, 2011

If the Soviets do ... indeed ... launch a pre-emptive invasion strike against Poland...

And England and France among with a desperate Poland makes overtures to Der Fuhrer ..

And Der Fuhrer is furious that Red Stalin has stolen a step or march at him for striking at Poland first before Germany could..

Maybe Der Fuhrer will see the potential possibilities of getting the majority of the Western, Central & Eastern European nations to see the Soviet Aggression as a prelude toward an eventual attempt at conquering Europe and gainsay his last diplomatic overture with Russia as null & void and thus takes advantage of the situation and lead a military and political alliance against the presumed Juggernaut of the Soviet Horde trying to conquer Poland and possibly the rest of Eastern Europe..

Heh...

GTAmario · Mar 12, 2011

Emperor of Halton said:
It's been pointed out that this scenario isn't very likely, but in the event of Britain and France seeing Germany and the USSR as allies, will they still declare war on Germany?

They might pause but they most likely will. Stalin would just sit back and watch Hitler get attacked and when he feels Germany is weakest, strike.