If the Nationalists win the war, how likely is it that the Communists set up their own state in Sinkiang with Soviet support? Given that Sinkinag was essentially independent during the war under a Communist government, I think there would not be too many obstacles for this.
Also, what would happen with Tibet? Would the Nationalists try to reconquer them? Could this lead to the USSR recognizing Tibet as independent to spite the West?
On Xinjiang, I think it's very unlikely that the CCP would be allowed to set up a state there. After Sheng Shicai's repudiation of the USSR in 1944 (1943?), Soviet-backed natives took the province over anyway, more or less. Given that Xinjiang is ethnically Uyghur and Muslim, it's hard to imagine the USSR letting Mao and the overwhelmingly Han CCP set up shop there, not when they had effective control of the region anyway - that would have made things unnecessarily messy. And in the case of a Guomindang China, they probably wouldn't have given it back. Instead, you might see the "Turkestan Soviet Socialist Republic," or the "Uyghur People's Republic" or some such.
Tibet is a more interesting issue. It's hard to see the GMD not intervening at some point to assert their prerogatives in a region that was generally considered to be under Chinese suzerainty. As for how that would look in practice, who knows?
The civil war could have ended on a Nationalist victory or at least stalemate with a POD as late as 1947, but an earlier POD would be a safer bet.
Yeah, I agree that if you're looking for total GMD victory, a prewar POD is probably a better idea. If you let the CCP introduce the peasants of the north to the wonders of land reform, it's going to be awfully difficult to put that particular genie back into the bottle. Plus, considering how corrupt and incompetent the Guomindang was it's probably better off if they don't have anyone to challenge them in the aftermath of war, because whoever it is might look good in comparison. And especially when you consider how many times the CCP came ever so close to being wiped out in the prewar years, it wouldn't be that hard to engineer a suitable POD.
Nationalist victory doesn't even guarantee one China today. depending on how this "victory" is reached.
This is the real question. How was the victory won? Was it a partial victory - which with a postwar POD is more likely than not, with Xinjiang gone and perhaps even a rump CCP state in the northeast controlling much of Manchuria and perhaps parts of Inner Mongolia as well. Or was it a crushing victory, with the CCP totally destroyed and the Guomindang in control of all of China? It's awfully hard to make any sweeping statements about what Guomindang China will look like without knowing how their victory happened. I'd be careful about stating with near-complete certainty (as a few people have done already) that such a state would be either a): a capitalist wonderland or b): not much different than today's PRC.
