What if NapoleonIII'S Mexican adventure had suceeded in establising a mexican empire(perhaps Britain and France secure Confedrate independance in returne for C.S suport for the new world Hapsburgs)what are your thorts?
David S Poepoe said:From the Confederate point of view, if one thinks that far ahead, the presence of Maximilian in Mexico presents and obstacle to you eventually annexing any significant portion of Mexico. Also, I think the Confederates also would be supporting the Monroe Doctrine.
Whatever everyone else is saying Maximilian is a liberal and his association with the Conservatives, who are the ones really oppressing the people, and the French, guilt by association. There is nothing the US could have done if there was a repeat of Iturbide's self declaration of empire and elevation to emperor, however it is another thing when it is done by an outside source - which the US had a real problem with. Once it becomes apparent what France is doing the British are going to pull out, they certainly didn't initially occupy Veracruz to put Maximilian on the throne.
The French and their allies never had any effective control over a near majority of Mexico. It would have been a very hard and long occupation which would just weaken Napoleon III's popularity at home. There is no way that the rebellion could have been put down since other Mexican leaders would have arisen to have taken Juarez's place. The US did support Juarez and shipped guns to him. Union General Lew Wallace was also involved in some efforts to help train anti-Maximilian forces.
The long term aspects are a draining unpopular war for the French in Mexico. Even with Confederate independence the United States will be friendly to anti-Maximilian forces and theres little the French or Imperial Mexican government can do.
David S Poepoe said:I guess another question would be how long could the French and Austrian forces remain in Mexico, excluding the involvement of US forces. I would have to factor in French politics of the time, we know that the Mexican Adventure was unpopular with the French populace. Between 1861 and 1871 how easily was Napoleon III's grasp on power? Does he weaken his control with the more of the Army he sends overseas?
Personally, while liking Maximilian, or at least feeling really sorry for him, I don't think he's in a very good position. He's aligned with Conservatives, that the bulk of the populace don't like, he has liberal leanings which don't quite match those of his Conservative dominated Government and he's a foreigner being installed by force. I think there's plenty of examples that the war could have devolved into guerilla warfare and there were many to take up Juarez's mantle in case something happened to him.
Not to sound to cliche, but couldn't Mexico become France's Afghanistan? (with reference to the 19th century situation, not wishing to invoke 'Vietnam').
ConfederateFly said:How would a Confederate, French and Empire of Mexico alliance be on the world stage? I think France would support the Confederacy because France would want the Confederacy to not interfrere in Frances adventure in Mexico
Norman said:If we have a French, Mexican, CSA Alliance, according to the balancing threories of diplomancy so prevelent then, do we have a Prussian, USA Alliance?
If so, what about the Franco-Prussian War?