And To Think It Might Have Happened: A Ukraine War Timeline

With the benefit of some degree of hindsight, let's make a shot at a timeline projecting events had the conflict in Ukraine spiraled into a shooting war, back in March.


February 14, 2010


Viktor Yanukovych was declared the winner in a the Ukrainian presidential election. His main rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was arrested for abuse of powers and eventually jailed the following year.

November 21, 2013


President Yanukovych's cabinet abandoned an agreement on closer trade ties with the European Union, instead seeking closer co-operation with Russia. Small protests started.

Late November, 2013

Protests gathered pace, as 100,000 people attended a demonstration in Kiev opposing the refusal of the government to seek better relations with the West.

Early December, 2013

Protesters occupied Kiev City Hall and Independence Square in the centre of the Ukrainian capital. Some 800,000 people rallied in Kiev, in protests which gained the name Euromaidan, fueled by the perception of widespread government corruption, abuse of power, and abuses of human rights.

December 17, 2013

Throwing President Yanukovych an economic lifeline, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to buy $15bn of Ukrainian debt and reduce the price of Russian gas supplies by about a third.

January 16-23, 2014

Parliament passed restrictive anti-protest laws as clashes turned deadly in Kiev. Protesters began storming regional government offices in western Ukraine.

January 28-29, 2014

Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigned and parliament annuled the anti-protest law. Parliament passed an amnesty bill, but the opposition rejected its conditions.

February 20, 2014

Kiev saw its worst day of violence for almost 70 years. At least 88 people were killed in 48 hours. Video showed uniformed snipers firing at protesters holding makeshift shields, while heavy rioting took place involving the use of firebombs.

February 21, 2014

In the lead up to the day's parliamentary session, it was reported that many members of the Party of Regions and their families had fled the capital, including acting Interior Minister Zakharchenko and Prosecutor General Viktor Psonka.

February 22, 2014


President Yanukovych disappeared, with his location unknown. In the midst of the uncertainty, the Ukrainian Parliament voted to remove him from power. New elections were set for May 25, as the former President's rival Yulia Tymoshenko was released from prison. Former Prime Minister and speaker Oleksandr Turchynov was made acting President. An arrest warrant was issued for former President Yanukovych, accusing him of complicity in the murder of protestors. Yanukovych would later appear in Russia, alongside President Putin.

February 27-28, 2014


Pro-Russian gunmen seized key buildings in the Crimean capital, Simferopol. Unidentified gunmen in combat uniforms appeared outside Crimea's main airports, suspected to be militia supplied by Russia, or even Russian soldiers.

March 1, 2014

Russia's parliament approved President Vladimir Putin's request to use force in Ukraine to protect Russian interests.

March 14, 2014, point of divergence

The Ukrainian missile boat Pryluky attacked the Russian corvette Razliv off the coast of Balaklava. It fired a P-15 Termit anti-ship missile which impacted the Russian corvette and killed 22 men, crippling the corvette which was shortly abandoned. Within an hour, Russian fighter aircraft attacked and destroyed the Pryluky with the death of all 30 sailors aboard. Western leaders called for an immediate ceasefire, with the United Nations brought into an emergency session in New York as delegates attempted to find a peaceful settlement. The efforts were hopeless, with Russia condemning Ukraine's interim government as illegitimate and the result of a west-backed coup.

March 15, 2014

Russian fighter aircraft bombed the Port of Odessa, sinking three Ukrainian Navy ships and killing up to 300 people, most of them servicemen. The West condemned the attacks and demanded both sides enter into negotiations. NATO demanded that Russia vacate from Crimea, while forces in Europe were put on high alert. However, most analysts and observers considered it very unlikely that the West would take any serious action beyond sanctions. Later that night, Ukrainian Su-24Ms bombed the Russian naval base at Sevastopol, causing heavy damage to a docked destroyer, with three of their number shot down. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Ukraine had made war on Russia.

March 16, 2014

The United States and European leaders prepared to place economic sanctions on Russia, with travel suspended for a number of high-profile Russian businessmen with close ties to President Putin, as well as restrictions on access to Western banks by Russian companies. In the White House, President Obama was shown satellite imagery that indicated a massive buildup of Russian forces beginning to take shape on the Ukrainian border.

March 17, 2014

After an uneasy day of peace, Russia suddenly launched a full scale air campaign against Ukraine to destroy its Air Force. Bombs fell on Kiev, targeting government headquarters, while military bases were devastated. The far smaller Ukrainian Air Force suffered heavy losses, but MiG-29s and Su-27s were able to inflict losses on the Russians. However, the anti-aircraft network was very weak with most of its equipment in storage and Russian aircraft were thus able to penetrate deep into Ukraine with impunity. The Ukrainian government issued an order for a general mobilisation of forces as well as initial plans for conscription. International airlines cancelled all flights to Ukraine, with the airspace over the country declared off limits by the European Union. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) affirmed complete support for Russia; this implied that Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan could potentially join the war. In all countries, reports indicated general mobilisation of forces.

March 18, 2014

A NATO taskforce deployed to Poland, comprising 15,000 American troops, 8,000 British, 7,000 French, 5,000 Italian, and 5,000 German. Belgian and Dutch aircraft also arrived. Additional forces were planned to arrive in the Baltic States. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister David Cameron announced that previously planned spending cuts on the military may be abandoned and reversed.



Thoughts?
 
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Yuelang

Banned
uh, technically in this alternate universe, pro-EU Ukraine is the one who start the war by rocket-ing Russian corvette. I suspect the usual anti-western guys out there *cough* Iran and friends *cough*, in addition of China, will back Russian positions in UN, diplomatically.

Russia at this point may express wish of cease fire, under condition that the upcoming referendum should be monitored by Iran and China
 
Interesting.

NATO's deployment to Poland will take several weeks to complete, certinly for the US force. Howevwer thee will be some pre stored equipment in Europe. Britain and the other European powers won't be fully prepared for ground combat operations, should this be decided upon until pehps mid May. Even then, Ukraine is not a NATO member and NATO leaders will be very cautious about being dragged into a shooting war with a nuclear power. Putin will be equally cauious about getting into a war with NATO for similar reasons.

Both sides would want to keep this limited to the war now underway between Russia and Ukraine. However, it is plausible that somehing could happen to escalate the conflict to drag NATO in and bring about a direct clash.

Please continue to sdevelop this scenario further.
 
Finnish politics will turn really poisonous and fast as supporters Nato-membership will come out screaming "We told you so!" to the supporters of neutrality.
 
It still might happen if Putin can't gobble up Eastern Ukraine piece by piece as hoped, but the response is still going to be rather feckless, it would have been a lot more feckless if Putin just did it the way he did Crimea.
 
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Starting March 19 I would expect

1 Strong mobilisation and buidup of Russian forces on the Ukranian border, the Crimea and Black Sea area. Masssive Russian militry exercises of a size unprecedented since the Cold War

2 Increasing war fears and anti war protests in the West. The Kremlin woulsd encourage that and make public statements concerning thepossibility of nuclearwar should the West interbene n a matter not its' concern in what is Russia's back yard"

3 Continued air campaign and support for theRussian minority in Eastern Ukraine. Russian arms and covert/overt military support

4 NATO military exercises in Poland. Possibly also in the Baltic Staes and Romania

5 Belorussia worried about being caught in he middle of a European war mobilises as a precaution, Fears intensify of a general European conflagraton and possible WW3.

5 Meanwhile at the UN intensive diplomatic efforts continue in an attempt to find a peaceful solution to the crisis.
 
This looks good so far...I expect this will be the start of Cold War 2: This time it's personnel :eek:
 
And potentially only an incident away from becoming a very hot war between nuclear armed powers. If someone miscalculates it could result in a large scale war between Russia and NATO with all that might mean :eek:

NATO and Russia will have to be careful if such an incident is to be avoided.
 
Putin's not going to allow anything to screw with his landgrab of Eastern Ukraine so confrontation is probably going to be minimal.
 
This is a fascinating story- what would be the reactions in various countries? How are the media covering this? Does this have a knock-on effect on Syria or oil prices?
 
Putin's not going to allow anything to screw with his landgrab of Eastern Ukraine so confrontation is probably going to be minimal.

Confrontation due to miscalculation and accident is a possibility. Suppose dfor example NATO ships move into the Black Sea or NATO starts flying Combat Air Patrols over the area\. Or Russian aircraft fly silar missionsin NATO air space for example over the Baltic States and the Baltic Sea. Increased potential for military incidents and clashes resulting in an escalation that niether side intends or wants
 
Confrontation due to miscalculation and accident is a possibility. Suppose dfor example NATO ships move into the Black Sea or NATO starts flying Combat Air Patrols over the area\. Or Russian aircraft fly silar missionsin NATO air space for example over the Baltic States and the Baltic Sea. Increased potential for military incidents and clashes resulting in an escalation that niether side intends or wants
What about something along the lines of the recent near-miss between a Norwegian F-16 and a Russian MiG-29 resulting in a collision with the loss of both planes? That could escalate given that both sides would likely blame the other.
 
What about something along the lines of the recent near-miss between a Norwegian F-16 and a Russian MiG-29 resulting in a collision with the loss of both planes? That could escalate given that both sides would likely blame the other.

Particularly if it should result from something like this http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/08/politics/russian-flights-near-nato/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Perhaps this incident, while not resulting in war in itself might be followed by increaing military manovering on land with NATO buildups in Eastern Europe, Russian action in the Ukraine including perhaps the start of an actual Russian invasion of that country. Plus Russian aand NATO naval activity in the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea with ever greater potential for a clash with ships and aircraft in very close proximity. And politically international tensions rise very sharply towards war as voices on both sides becom ever more strident.

In this situation all you might need is a serious incidet either at sea or in the air to start a war
 
Britain isn't going to be able to send 15,000 troops to Poland as combat operations in Afghanistan are still ongoing in March 2014. At most we could send 1 brigade of 8000 men and that would take some time.
 
Britain isn't going to be able to send 15,000 troops to Poland as combat operations in Afghanistan are still ongoing in March 2014. At most we could send 1 brigade of 8000 men and that would take some time.

Poland will certainly conduct some form of defensive mobilisation as will he other Eastern European States. The other NATO members will support politically and mlitarily to some extent.

The anti war lobby will, predictably, protest strongly agaist this "aggressive" NATO response,
 
Finnish politics will turn really poisonous and fast as supporters Nato-membership will come out screaming "We told you so!" to the supporters of neutrality.

To which the latter will scream back "you want to provoke Russia into doing this to us?"
 
Poland will certainly conduct some form of defensive mobilisation as will he other Eastern European States. The other NATO members will support politically and mlitarily to some extent.

The anti war lobby will, predictably, protest strongly agaist this "aggressive" NATO response,

Absolutely but Britain simply doesn't have 15000 men available to send to Eastern Europe in March 2014 short of full scale mobilisation. Afghan was in full swing and the deployment schedule was built around that. The British Army at the moment is capable of deploying two brigades overseas (each of 6-8,000 men*) at any one time. One of those available brigades was otherwise occupied at this time. Now of course Britain could decide that the situation in Ukraine is such that the Afghan commitment has to end early and then we could send 15,000 but that would require two months notice at least to pull them out of Afghan and would leave a massive hole in the ISAF war effort.


*Depending on what "extra's" like bomb disposal, NBC, Training Team's, Reconstruction Team's are needed.
 
The way things are going, all you'd have to do is change the dates of the events in the first post and this could be a thread in the Future History forum.
 
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