1980s integration of UK and NI?

After a break, I've once again picked up Charles Moore's authorised and scrupulously researched biography of Margaret Thatcher.

In the chapter on Northern Ireland in the 1979-1982 period, he describes that Mrs Thatcher and all of her senior Cabinet colleagues felt a great deal of frustration towards the Irish situation, but no real ideas for how to progress things: Thatcher herself was resistant to Northern Irish devolution because she feared it could be the first step towards the dissolution of the Anglo-Scottish Union. The one man who was a real expert on NI was Thatcher's early mentor Airey Neave, who was of course killed in an IRA bombing shortly before the 1979 election.

What exactly Neave envisaged for the province is open to doubt, but Moore states that all of the evidence points towards attempts to fully integrate NI into British politics, a course of action that had the support of moderate Unionists but pretty much nobody else, least of all the extremists on both sides. That said, this is the Thatcher government, and I suspect Mrs Thatcher would pretty tenaciously support the ideas of such a key ally.

So, what if Neave survives and the early 1980s witness a concerted effort on the part of Margaret Thatcher's Government to properly integrate Northern Ireland into "mainstream" Britain?

That would have been a fun time to live!!!!Trying to integrate NI into the UK and smashing Scargill and the NUM at the same time. It would have had to be one or the other even Maggie at her most stubborn couldn't have thought that she could do both at once, could she??
Given that there would have been resistance from England, Wales and Scotland, let alone NI, to fully integrating NI I honestly can't see it happening but I'm sure that someone has a cunning plan!

If the Tories took NI seriously as a place to win votes, they would have to organise on a large scale and could probably only do this with the complete support (ie integration with) the UUP. The DUP of the early 80s would react very badly to this I suspect...

If this happened, the Tories could well be looking at 3-4 additional seats and Labour couldn't stand idly by. They don't have a natural ally in NI so would need to cosy up to the SDLP with unpredictable results.

However there is a good possibility of this 'normalising' NI politics away from the straight sectarian status quo. Effects on Sinn Fein? Not easy to assess but quite possibly a real reduction in their working class Nationalist/Republican power base by those who would be naturally attracted to Labour especially the early 80s hard left version.

I think Neave could have been onto something but one issue worth raising is that the IRA and its supporters were very slowly weaned off the belief that unification could only be achieved through violence in part due to the political successes of SF. Who is to say that a reduction in these successes could have made the political move a harder sell for the Provisional leadership? Could that mean an upswing in IRA activity?

I haven't the foggiest, but it would make an excellent TL.

If policies like the ones adopted by Roy Mason are continued post 1979, there is a chance that republican, terrorism could be severly curtailed and limited.

However the trick will be to be equally ruthless on any form of loyalist terror activities. Strict anti discrimination legislation will also have to be implemented to bolster the position of catholics.

It would have taken a lot of effort and gone against so many vested interests both in the UUP and Conservative Party that Neave would have needed Thatcher full support on this. Which he may have had considering their friendship.

How exactly would you forcibly integrate the NI political scene into the UK? Maybe a new law that you can only be acknowledged as a party and receive funding if you stand candidates in every nation of the UK?

I could see the SDLP and other moderate nationalists teaming up with the SNP, Plaid and the Wessex Regionalists in England (it lets them fit the capita, even if the latter was a joke party) so fit the bill, while the extremist nationalists and unionists alike would probably stubbornly run as independents, a la the Kurds in Turkey, and most probably get elected a lot...

I have no real idea, but it would be interesting to see the outcome.

I have difficulty with seeing the attempt succeed since there would be huge opposition in Northern Ireland. I do agree though that such opposition wouldn't stop Thatcher trying. Would the attempt cause her to forget or postpone some of her plans for Britain outside of Ireland? I suspect it would, since bringing Northern Ireland fully into UK politics would surely require additional resources, resources that would have to come from somewhere else. I don't know enough to begin judging the resources necessary though.

One likely consequence, whether with success or failure for Thatcher, is that it would be far harder for her successors to begin any sort of negotiations with Sinn Fein, and it would be equally hard for Sinn Fein to get involved in negotiations. That would butterfly away the Good Friday Agreement entirely, possibly leaving nothing in its place.

If it was handled badly, could it result in the DUP superceding the UUP electorally earlier than it did, especially if the UUP is seen as 'selling out'?

Well with Direct Rule and Stormont suspended Direct Rule wouldn't mean all that much of a change in terms of de facto governance (where NI was the most centrally controlled part of the UK) though it would be a big change in terms de jure (where it was the least).

As for reuniting the Tories with the UUP it would require renouncing the Sunningdale Agreement negotiated by Heath and forever rule out anything like the 1985 Anglo-Irish agreement. That's possible politically but it's also going to forever rule out a negotiated settlement so long as a Tory party including Ulster members is in government. So no John Major negotiated Good Friday either. All in all a longer war probably ending in something like OTL but either done by Labour or by the Tories post another Tory-UUP separation.

Thande said:

How exactly would you forcibly integrate the NI political scene into the UK?

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I presume the sort of integration being talked about would be of the education systems, social services organisation, policing (which is going to be very tricky) etc. - not of the political parties per se (although the Tories and UUP may choose to remerge - Labour certainly won't change its policy on organising in NI in the 80s, though).

Maybe a new law that you can only be acknowledged as a party and receive funding if you stand candidates in every nation of the UK?

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I don't think such a law would have much support, nowhere near enough to override the opposition to it and stand a chance of passing.