Synopsis of events up to WWI
The POD is that The Zionist survey committee sent by the British to investigate El-Arish in the Northern Sinai in 1903 offers a much strong endorsement of the site. The Zionist movement also offers a financial commitment to develop the Sweet water Canal expansion and supporting Egyptian infrastructure as well as a detailed hydrological study showing that expanding the Sweet water Canal east of the Suez would not diminish the underutilized agricultural capacity of the Nile delta.
That, combined with the timing of the delayed report (following the Kishinev pogrom), leads Lord Cromer, de facto British viceroy in Egypt, to support the project, rather than withdrawing his support as OTL.
The Sinai settlement project is entrusted, as per Theoder herzl's "New Old land" into the hands of a cooperative corporation funded by a combination of popular subscriptions to "new society bonds" and Jewish, and a few non Jewish financiers- of which the Rothschild's are most prominent. This corporation/cooperative also takes a stronger role in settlement within Ottoman Southern Syria/Palestine.
A number of societal divergances are immediately apparent in comparision to OTLs Zionist movement:
1. Male Immigration requires a commitment to serve under quasi-military conditions in the New Society labor brigades. Membership in the New Society requires approval by superiors and peers at the end of the service term. Female immigration requires the same or sponsorship by a New Society citizen. So rather than a universal sufferage, you have a society which regularly excludes 10-15% of it's men from citizenship, as well as excluding large numbers of women from citizenship- particularly those from traditional or religious backgrounds who are opposed to women leaving the patriarchial home. By the standards of the time this is very progressive- but it also leaves little room for later progress towards universal, unconditional sufferage.
2. Political participation is more local and less national. Furthermore, only those receiving high assessments during their service period (or those volunteering for additional service) receive "active" citizenship and can participate, even locally. The "board of directors" keeps control over the New Society macro enterprise well into the 1930s.
3. "Selection" for new immigrants is based primarily on "objective" physical fitness, psychological stability, education and proto-IQ tests. OTL the post WWI, pre WWII criteria were primarily membership in the correct youth/political organization, with each Zionist (and the anti-zionist Aguda) were allotted a quota by the WZO and the British.
4. A greater "break from the past" and cultural homogeneity in the emerging New Society. The Melting pot here is an industrial grade furnace. OTL Israel was a coalition of many ideological, religious and ethnic tribes which is only now coalenscing into a single society (except for the Ultra Orthodox. And the Settlers. And the…).
5. 0 power or representation for anti-zionist Ultra-Orthodox. Bye bye Aguda.
6. A founding ideology which is more pro-business and less socialist… but in practice is an extremely centralized state capitalism on the macro level and cooperative socialism, albeit less eglatarian than OTL's Kibbutz (differential pay based on position and quotas), on the micro level.
7. Employment of Egyptian laborers in constructing the North Sinai infrastructure and invitation and inclusion of a few (especially but not exclusively Copts) in the New Society. OTL, the young Russian immigrants of the Second Aliyah were outraged by being passed over for employment on the established First Aliyah settlements in favor of Arab laborers who were better suited for the climate, less argumentative, and more experienced in agricultural labor. The resulting political-labor struggle solidified the concept of "Jewish labor" in Zionist terminology and inadvertently prevented any possibility of making the Zionist enterprise a joint Arab-Jewish project. Attacks by Arab laborers on Jewish employers put the final nail in the coffin.
TTL the fact that everyone is an employee/stakeholder in the New Society corporation means that there is less anxiety by Jewish proles about the inclusion of Arab labor in the project. No/Little native Egyptian population in the Sinai means that no attacks occur (save by Bedouin) for the initial decade of settlement.
By 1914, 390,000 more Jews have arrived in the Middle East than OTL. Their distribution in the Palestine-Egypt area is as follows:
North Sinai/El Arish: 150,000 Jews+ 10,000 Egyptians (almost All New Society citizens , equally split between Copts and Muslims)+ 7,000 semi-forcibly settled and allied Bedouin.
South-central Sinai: about 12,000 Nomadic and semi-Nomadic Bedouin.
Eastern Canal (new cities constructed by Zionists): 100,000 Jews+ 5,000 Egyptians (about half New Society members, the rest are simply drawn to the economy)+ 5,000 Greeks, Maltese, etc.
Western Canal (Pre-existing cities of Port Said, Ismaila, Kantara): 50,000 Jews (some of whom are non-citizens)+ 30,000 foreigners (Maltese, Cypriots, etc)+ 30,000 Egyptians (about 40% Copts).
Egypt proper: 45,000 "native" Jews, 40,000 "new" Jews (mostly "fleshpot" droputs from "New Society), 750,000 Foreigners (Europeans, maltese, Greeks, Indians…). Oh. And also eight Million Egyptians (10-20% Copts depending on who's counting).
Ottoman Palestine: 25,000 Old Yishuv Jews, 100,000 New Yishuv Jews, 500,000 Arab (and Turkish) Muslims, 50,000 Arab Christians and maybe 15,000 Druze.
Insofar as relations with the Arabs are concerned the *Zionists remain blithely oblivious to the growing, if still largely subliminated, outrage of the Wider Muslim neighborhood. They also remain unaware of the limitations of power. Sinai is an isolated Island whose economy is sustained by the diversion of the Nile Eastward and actual contact with the "Arabs" is rare. Most contact is either with the Westernized Canal dwellers (who are mostly Copts and Greek/Maltese/Italian) or with the "savage" Bedouin. With the former, it is mutually beneficial business as usual.
With the latter matters had grown increasingly… unpleasant. But with the moral backing of both the British and the Egyptian government civilization has triumphed over savagery!
The Jewish Militizia, rather than shedding innocent blood in retaliatory raids has maintained "purity of arms". In a well planned and carefully coordinated sweep across the Northern Sinai they had captured most of the herds (and incidentially slain hundreds of Bedouin attempting to guard or recover the herds) of the North Sinai Bedouin and presented them with an unltimatum: settle in designated, mixed Bedouin-Jewish settlements, which will be supported and subisidised by the New Society, or accept a compensation package and move elsewhere. Most of the North Sinai Bedouin have wisely chosen to accept the benefits of civilization and have given up their arms and nomadic way of life. Of course, a few of the Northern tribes have withdrawn to kin in the southern Sinai and the Ottoman Negev and try to continue to launch raids on the Jewish settlements… but with a wide cordon-sanitaire around the Northern coast, as well as some aerical reconnisiance most of these raids are intercepted by the Militizia, now augmented by Bedouin turncoats. It's only a minor annoyance, civilians are almost never killed, and the skirmishes become the equivalent of Rudyard R.Kipling's stories about the Northwest frontier for a generation of Jewish children.
Still, the majority of the North Sinai Bedouin have settled in nicely. They are sending their children to the newly established schools, a few are intermarrying with the Jews, and their material quality of life has greatly increased. Surely, this is proof that Zionism is morally correct and beneficial to both Arab and Jew!
Unfortunately, the Palestinian Arabs, the Ottomans and even the Egyptians don't seem to recognize these benefits. The Palestinian/South Syrian Arabs are horrified at the Idea of the Jews turning Syria into a second Sinai (1) and press the Ottomans to pass a blanket moratorium on all further Jewish immigration and land purchases (2). Under the pressure of Arab rebellion and Italian and Balkan invasion the Ottomans find it hard to enforce the ban but as 1914 and Ottoman recovery dawn they go at it with a vengeance (3). With official presence thin on the ground, angry Arabs are increasingly taking matters into their own hands, launching raids on their Jewish neighbors. Unlike their Sinai Kin, the Palestinian Jews cannot organize a military force openly and their weapons and militarily active members are subject to arbitrary Ottoman seizure. Accordingly, they avoid any retaliatory raids and stick to passive defense (4). They still have some international protection, which prevents the ottomans from massacring or expelling them wholesale. What develops in South Syria/Palestine by 1914 is a pattern where Arab raiders are met by passive defense, followed by Ottoman arrest of both Jewish defenders and Arab raiders. Sometimes the Jewish defenders are "shot while resisting arrest". The Arab raiders are usually released "for lack of evidence" or else "escape". International outrage sometimes compels the Ottomans to release Jewish prisoners or act more energetically against Arab raiders. It becomes increasingly clear, however, that Djemal Pasha is not only turning a blind eye to Arab attacks but encouraging Ottoman officers on furlough to direct the raiders- and is even arming and encouraging the south Sinai and Negev tribes to attack the Northern Sinai.
Increasingly, as European tensions increase, The Ottomans ignore international pressure. When WWI breaks out, Djemal Pasha ends the whole sorry affair by expelling every last one of the New Yishuv Jews (5). Most travel by railway to El Arish, where their horror stories lead to the New Society to mobilize the Militizia prior to the Ottoman declaration of war. It also strengthens the Millitant faction of Vladimir zhabotinsky which declares that the only way to enable Jewish settlement of Eretz yisrael is by military conquest- with or without British support.
Disquieting tones are increasingly being heard in Egypt as well. While the Jewish presence has been a financial boon to the Khedive, he is an Egyptian nationalist above all and is shocked at the speed and success of the Jewish settlement. He never imagined that so many Jews would come so quickly- or that they would gain such a prominent position in the commerce of his realm. From a useful, easily managed cash cow they are rapidly becoming a threat. Discreetly, he begins encouraging elements in Egyptian society to direct their protests at the Jewish presence.
They require little encouragement. The lowest and largest layer of Egyptian society, the fallahs, are not adversely affected by the Sinai settlements- indeed, the Jewish presence has stimulated the retail trade and, thanks to the construction of new mills and manufactaries on the Canal cities, has raised Cotton and Sugar process while lowering the price of textiles, common household goods and agricultural implements. The traders and craftmen of Egypt's urban centers however find themselves exposed to greater competition, whereas the nationally minded Egyptians, hithero uninterested in the Sinai are increasingly concerned with the takeover of land they are now convinced they would have been able to reclaim themselves in due time, not to mention the de-facto severance of the Suez Canal from Egypt,
In addition to a number of ugly incidents with Jewish traders in the Delta, the Egyptian government has raised the water rent for the Sinai settlements unilaterally and is refusing to increase the Sinai water quota to allow for further immigration and cultivation. Cutting off water supplies, while threatened in the WAFD press is not, as yet, a serious concern- as the same canal supplies the Suez and the Sinai the British authorities would never allow it. But the threat is hanging over the Sinai settlements like a shadow.
In the wider world the Sinai settlement has caused few ripples as yet. Three, however, are significant.
The triumvirate running the Otoman empire following the Balkan wars is jittery at the presence of actual and potential British puppets on their borders. When the Saudis invade Hassa province they decide to lance the boil, as well as rid themselves of Mustafa Kemal, at the first opportunity. Somewhat to their surprise the Saudis are destroyed in short order and Rashidi rule is restored to the Nejd.
Khalil Bey, sent to end the Idrisid threat in Asir and crush the Imam of Yemen once and for all is somewhat less successful. He does, however, ensure that the Hashemi rulers of the Hejaz are replaced by a more loyal clan. (5)
In the United States the backlash from the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Jewish refugees from the Russian pogroms of 1904-1907 results in an attempt by legistlators to limit Jewish immigration. Unlike OTL they do not meet united Jewish and liberal opposition. The amendment to the anarchist exclusion act of 1903 (6), effectively permits immigration officials to exclude, based soley on their personal judgement, any would be immigrants from the Russian empire or Romania (7) "until such time as congress judges anarchist threats posed by the current uphevals in the region to be at end" (8). The accompanying "Jewish Liberia act" supported by both Jews and evangelicals, authorizes the federal budget to pay for the transportation and settlement of any individual who wishes to partake in the revival of Sinai and the Palestine and who is found desirable by the Sinai colonization society (9)
Zhabotinsky's volunteer "Maccabe legion" participates in the Balkan wars on the Greek side. This has no real military implications but does result in diplomatic contacts between the Greek government and the Jewish nation in the making which will have certain repercussions later on. It also gets the Jews of Saloniki slightly better treatment- just as it results in persecution of the Jews of Istanbul and Izmir.
And so, the world lurches towards WWI, as OTL. The factors leading the Ottoman empire to intervene are similliar to OTL, and no butterfly diverts the Breslau and the Goiben from their course.
There are a few differences however:
a. Ottoman Force distribution. OTL, by December 1914, the Ottomans had eight divisions based in Syria (3 Aleppo, 1 Hama, 1 Damascus, 1 Haifa, 2 on Sinai border) 2 in Messopotamia (almost all around Bhagdad), 4 in Western Arabia, 13 on the Russian border, 2 in Izmir and 11 in the straits, Constantinopole and Turkey in Europe. TTL, The Aleppo reserve is depleted by two divisions which are split between a newly formed Basra-East Arabia command and reinforcements for Khalil Pasha's forces in Yemen. 1 additional division is sent to Djemal Pasha as reinforcements from the Russian frontier and is used to bolster the Sinai expeditionary force, as is the Hama Division.
b. Mustafa Kemal is in command in Basra and has considerably more forces at his command than OTLs Ottoman commander did. He is also considerably more energetic. In the period of Neutrality preceding Ottoman entry into the war he occupies Kuwait and deposes the Emir, sending him to exile in Istanbul.
c. Unlike OTL, a railway exists across the Sinai, connecting to the Jaffe-Jerusalem railway. The Northern Sinai is also abundantly watered and provisioned.
d. The Jewish Militzia in the Sinai, bolstered by refugees from Ottoman Palestine, is capable of mobilizing the equivalent of three infantry divisions and two camalry brigades (10). They are Artillary light though well supplied with machine guns and aerial reconnaiscence. Partially subsidized by the British, who also pay the salaries of the British officers who make up about a third of the commissioned officers of the mobilized force. The British generally consider them to be inferior to "White" divisions but superior to all but the best of the Indian and Nepali troops. Djemal Pasha largely discounts them. Their actual quality is dependent on whether they will have the time to make up their deficiencies in heavy equipment, complete the shift of their doctrine from chasing Bedouin raiders to engaging in total industrial warfare, and integrate more experienced British officers.
e. Increased industrialization of the Suez Canal has also resulted in a New Society financed and managed munitions factory and armory. It is not sufficient to supply the entire Militzia, let alone the Anglo-Egyptian army with munitions- but it can be expanded.
f. The New Society has developed an intelligence service of sorts called SHAI focusing on Ottoman Palestine. while badly disrupted by the expulsion of the Yishuv from the Ottoman empire, holdouts, contacts with Bedouin tribes, and just plain common sense means that the Ottoman attack is not going to blindside the New Society. While the British authorities in Egypt proper view the SHAI's reports with some skeptism ("Hysterical Yids trying to drag us into diverting troops to take Jerusalem from the Wogs instead of properly conserving them to play cricket in Alexandria" covers the attitude) they have made contingency plans and shifted forces Eastward (11)
g. Accordingly, the historic raid on the Suez Canal looks somewhat different. The historical "diversion" in the North is an all out assault on El-Arish intended to draw the British army away from the Canal and/or destroy the Jewish settlement, while the raid along the central route of the Sinai is a wide enveloping movement intended to interdict traffic on the Suez Canal at Ismaila, capture the "fountainhead" at Ismailah transporting the waters of the sweetwater Canal eastward, and hopefully spark an Egyptian uprising.
And so, it begins.
(1) OTL, they only became politically organized after the Balfour declaration. Attacks on Jews prior to that occurred but they were mostly brigandage or xenophobia based, not "political".
(2) OTL, but more due to local pressure TTL.
(3) OTL they were relatively laid back about it until WWI.
(4) Equivalent to OTL Havlaga between 1920-1936.
(5) OTL, Djemal planned to eliminate the Hashemis after the war Abduallah was seen talking too many wrong people. TTL, they act soonser.
(6)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_Act_of_1903
(7) So a smaller Polish community than OTL, as well as a smaller Jewish community.
(8) In practice not very different from the 1917 law. It resulted in a great many Jews and not a few Poles and Italians being classified as Imbeciles (imbeciles! Us!), ill, crooked spined, etc, etc. Of course this was just a formalization of an earlier practice- which killed, for example, the Galveston plan.
(9) Isn't hypocrisy wonderful? The word Jew is not explicitly mentioned even once in either act.
(10) A slightly lower proportion of the population than Israel managed to mobilize historically in 1948. While the population is younger, more male, and has British backing to organize it also has less experience in warfare. The Bedou wars were shorter and less intensive than the 1936 Arab uprising and there is no equivalent to OTLs Jewish brigade during WWII.
(11) The British had some 70,000 troops in Egypt OTL but only 25,000 of them were actually stationed on the Canal. TTL it's more like 40,000, with forward forces deployed at the passes protecting the central and southern approach to the canal.